Crop switching can enhance environmental sustainability and farmer incomes in China

Achieving food-system sustainability is a multidimensional challenge. In China, a doubling of crop production since 1990 has compromised other dimensions of sustainability1,2. Although the country is promoting various interventions to enhance production efficiency and reduce environmental impacts3, there is little understanding of whether crop switching can achieve more sustainable cropping systems and whether coordinated action is needed to avoid tradeoffs. Here we combine high-resolution data on crop-specific yields, harvested areas, environmental footprints and farmer incomes to first quantify the current state of crop-production sustainability. Under varying levels of inter-ministerial and central coordination, we perform spatial optimizations that redistribute crops to meet a suite of agricultural sustainable development targets. With a siloed approach—in which each government ministry seeks to improve a single sustainability outcome in isolation—crop switching could realize large individual benefits but produce tradeoffs for other dimensions and between regions. In cases of central coordination—in which tradeoffs are prevented—we find marked co-benefits for environmental-impact reductions (blue water (−4.5% to −18.5%), green water (−4.4% to −9.5%), greenhouse gases (GHGs) (−1.7% to −7.7%), fertilizers (−5.2% to −10.9%), pesticides (−4.3% to −10.8%)) and increased farmer incomes (+2.9% to +7.5%). These outcomes of centrally coordinated crop switching can contribute substantially (23–40% across dimensions) towards China’s 2030 agricultural sustainable development targets and potentially produce global resource savings. This integrated approach can inform feasible targeted agricultural interventions that achieve sustainability co-benefits across several dimensions.