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Deepening water scarcity in breadbasket nations

Author

Listed:
  • Qinyu Deng

    (Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Tyler Sharretts

    (University of Delaware)

  • Tariq Ali

    (Jiangxi Agricultural University)

  • Yufei Zoe Ao

    (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University)

  • Davide Danilo Chiarelli

    (Politecnico di Milano)

  • Betelhem Demeke

    (University of Alabama)

  • Landon Marston

    (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University)

  • Piyush Mehta

    (University of Delaware)

  • Mesfin Mekonnen

    (University of Alabama)

  • Maria Cristina Rulli

    (Politecnico di Milano)

  • Marta Tuninetti

    (Politecnico di Torino)

  • Wei Xie

    (Peking University
    Peking University)

  • Kyle Frankel Davis

    (University of Delaware
    University of Delaware)

Abstract

Water is crucial for meeting sustainability targets, but its unsustainable use threatens human wellbeing and the environment. Past assessments of water scarcity (i.e., water demand in exceedance of availability) have often been spatially coarse and temporally limited, reducing their utility for targeting interventions. Here we perform a detailed monthly sub-basin assessment of the evolution of blue (i.e., surface and ground) water scarcity (years 1980-2015) for the world’s three most populous countries – China, India, and the USA. Disaggregating by specific crops and sectors, we find that blue water demand rose by 60% (China), 71% (India), and 27% (USA), dominated by irrigation for a few key crops (alfalfa, maize, rice, wheat). We also find that unsustainable demand during peak months of use has increased by 101% (China), 82% (India), and 49% (USA) and that 32% (China), 61% (India), and 27% (US) of sub-basins experience at least 4 months of scarcity. These findings demonstrate that rising water demands are disproportionately being met by water resources in already stressed regions and provide a basis for targeting potential solutions that better balance the water needs of humanity and nature.

Suggested Citation

  • Qinyu Deng & Tyler Sharretts & Tariq Ali & Yufei Zoe Ao & Davide Danilo Chiarelli & Betelhem Demeke & Landon Marston & Piyush Mehta & Mesfin Mekonnen & Maria Cristina Rulli & Marta Tuninetti & Wei Xie, 2025. "Deepening water scarcity in breadbasket nations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-56022-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-56022-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martina Flörke & Christof Schneider & Robert I. McDonald, 2018. "Water competition between cities and agriculture driven by climate change and urban growth," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 1(1), pages 51-58, January.
    2. Wei Xie & Anfeng Zhu & Tariq Ali & Zhengtao Zhang & Xiaoguang Chen & Feng Wu & Jikun Huang & Kyle Frankel Davis, 2023. "Crop switching can enhance environmental sustainability and farmer incomes in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 616(7956), pages 300-305, April.
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