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Transient dynamics of an altered large marine ecosystem

Author

Listed:
  • Kenneth T. Frank

    (Bedford Institute of Oceanography, P.O. Box 1006)

  • Brian Petrie

    (Bedford Institute of Oceanography, P.O. Box 1006)

  • Jonathan A. D. Fisher

    (Queen’s University)

  • William C. Leggett

    (Queen’s University)

Abstract

Will cod make a comeback? Cod populations in the northwest Atlantic suffered a sudden and dramatic collapse about 20 years ago, and despite the subsequent ban on cod fishing there has been no appreciable recovery in the intervening years. Frank et al. report on the nature of the collapse and the reasons for its persistence. They find that the prolonged duration of the alternate (collapsed) state of the ecosystem was governed by the oscillatory, runaway consumption dynamics of the predator's former prey — forage fish. These prey species are now in decline, however, having outstripped their zooplankton food supply. The trend now is towards an increase in large-bodied zooplankton abundance, so a gradual return to the earlier ecosystem state is possible — a conclusion that bodes well for other collapsed fisheries.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth T. Frank & Brian Petrie & Jonathan A. D. Fisher & William C. Leggett, 2011. "Transient dynamics of an altered large marine ecosystem," Nature, Nature, vol. 477(7362), pages 86-89, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:477:y:2011:i:7362:d:10.1038_nature10285
    DOI: 10.1038/nature10285
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Trisha L Spanbauer & Craig R Allen & David G Angeler & Tarsha Eason & Sherilyn C Fritz & Ahjond S Garmestani & Kirsty L Nash & Jeffery R Stone, 2014. "Prolonged Instability Prior to a Regime Shift," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(10), pages 1-7, October.
    2. Castellani, Marco & Rosland, Rune & Urtizberea, Agurtzane & Fiksen, Øyvind, 2013. "A mass-balanced pelagic ecosystem model with size-structured behaviourally adaptive zooplankton and fish," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 54-63.
    3. Domenico De Giovanni & Fabio Lamantia, 2018. "Dynamic Harvesting Under Imperfect Catch Control," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 176(1), pages 252-267, January.
    4. Cronin, M. & Jessopp, M. & Houle, J. & Reid, D., 2014. "Fishery-seal interactions in Irish waters: Current perspectives and future research priorities," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 120-130.
    5. Rudi Voss & Martin F Quaas & Jörn O Schmidt & Olli Tahvonen & Martin Lindegren & Christian Möllmann, 2014. "Assessing Social – Ecological Trade-Offs to Advance Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(9), pages 1-8, September.
    6. Anne Hollowed & Enrique Curchitser & Charles Stock & Chang Zhang, 2013. "Trade-offs associated with different modeling approaches for assessment of fish and shellfish responses to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(1), pages 111-129, July.
    7. Lei Zhao & Mingguo Wang & Zhongyao Liang & Qichao Zhou, 2020. "Identification of Regime Shifts and Their Potential Drivers in the Shallow Eutrophic Lake Yilong, Southwest China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-12, May.
    8. Maroto, José M. & Morán, Manuel, 2019. "Transient dynamics: Equilibrium, collapse, and extinction in age-structured models. The case of the Northern cod stock," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 398(C), pages 35-43.
    9. Zhang, Chongliang & Chen, Yong & Ren, Yiping, 2016. "The efficacy of fisheries closure in rebuilding depleted stocks: Lessons from size-spectrum modeling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 332(C), pages 59-66.

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