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Trade-offs associated with different modeling approaches for assessment of fish and shellfish responses to climate change

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  • Anne Hollowed
  • Enrique Curchitser
  • Charles Stock
  • Chang Zhang

Abstract

Considerable progress has been made in integrating carbon, nutrient, phytoplankton and zooplankton dynamics into global-scale physical climate models. Scientists are exploring ways to extend the resolution of the biosphere within these Earth system models (ESMs) to include impacts on global distribution and abundance of commercially exploited fish and shellfish. This paper compares different methods for modeling fish and shellfish responses to climate change on global and regional scales. Several different modeling approaches are considered including: direct applications of ESM’s, use of ESM output for estimation of shifts in bioclimatic windows, using ESM outputs to force single- and multi-species stock projection models, and using ESM and physical climate model outputs to force regional bio-physical models of varying complexity and mechanistic resolution. We evaluate the utility of each of these modeling approaches in addressing nine key questions relevant to climate change impacts on living marine resources. No single modeling approach was capable of fully addressing each question. A blend of highly mechanistic and less computationally intensive methods is recommended to gain mechanistic insights and to identify model uncertainties. Copyright U.S. Government 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Anne Hollowed & Enrique Curchitser & Charles Stock & Chang Zhang, 2013. "Trade-offs associated with different modeling approaches for assessment of fish and shellfish responses to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(1), pages 111-129, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:119:y:2013:i:1:p:111-129
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0641-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter M. Cox & Richard A. Betts & Chris D. Jones & Steven A. Spall & Ian J. Totterdell, 2000. "Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model," Nature, Nature, vol. 408(6809), pages 184-187, November.
    2. Kenneth T. Frank & Brian Petrie & Jonathan A. D. Fisher & William C. Leggett, 2011. "Transient dynamics of an altered large marine ecosystem," Nature, Nature, vol. 477(7362), pages 86-89, September.
    3. Michael Fogarty & Lewis Incze & Katherine Hayhoe & David Mountain & James Manning, 2008. "Potential climate change impacts on Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) off the northeastern USA," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 13(5), pages 453-466, June.
    4. Peter M. Cox & Richard A. Betts & Chris D. Jones & Steven A. Spall & Ian J. Totterdell, 2000. "Erratum: Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model," Nature, Nature, vol. 408(6813), pages 750-750, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. M. Salinger & J. Bell & K. Evans & A. Hobday & V. Allain & K. Brander & P. Dexter & D. Harrison & A. Hollowed & B. Lee & R. Stefanski, 2013. "Climate and oceanic fisheries: recent observations and projections and future needs," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(1), pages 213-221, July.
    2. M. Salinger, 2013. "A brief introduction to the issue of climate and marine fisheries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(1), pages 23-35, July.

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