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China’s future food demand and its implications for trade and environment

Author

Listed:
  • Hao Zhao

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijingshan District
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Jinfeng Chang

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    Zhejiang University)

  • Petr Havlík

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Michiel Dijk

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    Wageningen University and Research)

  • Hugo Valin

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Charlotte Janssens

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    University of Leuven (KU Leuven))

  • Lin Ma

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Zhaohai Bai

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Mario Herrero

    (Cornell University)

  • Pete Smith

    (University of Aberdeen)

  • Michael Obersteiner

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    Oxford University)

Abstract

Satisfying China’s food demand without harming the environment is one of the greatest sustainability challenges for the coming decades. Here we provide a comprehensive forward-looking assessment of the environmental impacts of China’s growing demand on the country itself and on its trading partners. We find that the increasing food demand, especially for livestock products (~16%–30% across all scenarios), would domestically require ~3–12 Mha of additional pasture between 2020 and 2050, resulting in ~−2% to +16% growth in agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The projected ~15%–24% reliance on agricultural imports in 2050 would result in ~90–175 Mha of agricultural land area and ~88–226 MtCO2-equivalent yr−1of GHG emissions virtually imported to China, which account for ~26%–46% and ~13%–32% of China’s global environmental impacts, respectively. The distribution of the environmental impacts between China and the rest of the world would substantially depend on development of trade openness. Thus, to limit the negative environmental impacts of its growing food consumption, besides domestic policies, China needs to also take responsibility in the development of sustainable international trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Hao Zhao & Jinfeng Chang & Petr Havlík & Michiel Dijk & Hugo Valin & Charlotte Janssens & Lin Ma & Zhaohai Bai & Mario Herrero & Pete Smith & Michael Obersteiner, 2021. "China’s future food demand and its implications for trade and environment," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 4(12), pages 1042-1051, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:4:y:2021:i:12:d:10.1038_s41893-021-00784-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-021-00784-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pan He & Giovanni Baiocchi & Klaus Hubacek & Kuishuang Feng & Yang Yu, 2018. "The environmental impacts of rapidly changing diets and their nutritional quality in China," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 1(3), pages 122-127, March.
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    5. Sumets, Alexander & Tyrkalo, Yuriy & Popovych, Nataliia & Poliakova, Juliia & Krupin, Vitaliy, 2022. "Modeling of the environmental risk management system of agroholdings considering the sustainable development values," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 8(4), December.
    6. Sun, Jingxin & Sun, Shikun & Yin, Yali & Wang, Yubao & Zhao, Jinfeng & Tang, Yihe & Wu, Pute, 2024. "Decoupling trend and drivers between grain water‑carbon footprint and economy-ecology development in China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).

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