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A fire deficit persists across diverse North American forests despite recent increases in area burned

Author

Listed:
  • Sean A. Parks

    (Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute)

  • Christopher H. Guiterman

    (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science (CIRES) at the University of Colorado
    NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information)

  • Ellis Q. Margolis

    (New Mexico Landscapes Field Station)

  • Margaret Lonergan

    (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science (CIRES) at the University of Colorado)

  • Ellen Whitman

    (Northern Forestry Centre)

  • John T. Abatzoglou

    (University of California Merced)

  • Donald A. Falk

    (University of Arizona
    University of Arizona)

  • James D. Johnston

    (University of Oregon)

  • Lori D. Daniels

    (University of British Columbia)

  • Charles W. Lafon

    (Texas A&M University)

  • Rachel A. Loehman

    (Alaska Science Center)

  • Kurt F. Kipfmueller

    (University of Minnesota-Twin Cities Campus)

  • Cameron E. Naficy

    (Pacific Northwest Region
    Oregon State University)

  • Marc-André Parisien

    (Northern Forestry Centre)

  • Jeanne Portier

    (Snow and Landscape Research WSL)

  • Michael C. Stambaugh

    (University of Missouri)

  • A. Park Williams

    (University of California Los Angeles)

  • Andreas P. Wion

    (New Mexico Landscapes Field Station)

  • Larissa L. Yocom

    (Utah State University
    Utah State University)

Abstract

Rapid increases in wildfire area burned across North American forests pose novel challenges for managers and society. Increasing area burned raises questions about whether, and to what degree, contemporary fire regimes (1984–2022) are still departed from historical fire regimes (pre-1880). We use the North American tree-ring fire-scar network (NAFSN), a multi-century record comprising >1800 fire-scar sites spanning diverse forest types, and contemporary fire perimeters to ask whether there is a contemporary fire surplus or fire deficit, and whether recent fire years are unprecedented relative to historical fire regimes. Our results indicate, despite increasing area burned in recent decades, that a widespread fire deficit persists across a range of forest types and recent years with exceptionally high area burned are not unprecedented when considering the multi-century perspective offered by fire-scarred trees. For example, ‘record’ contemporary fire years such as 2020 burned 6% of NAFSN sites—the historical average—well below the historical maximum of 29% sites that burned in 1748. Although contemporary fire extent is not unprecedented across many North American forests, there is abundant evidence that unprecedented contemporary fire severity is driving forest loss in many ecosystems and adversely impacting human lives, infrastructure, and water supplies.

Suggested Citation

  • Sean A. Parks & Christopher H. Guiterman & Ellis Q. Margolis & Margaret Lonergan & Ellen Whitman & John T. Abatzoglou & Donald A. Falk & James D. Johnston & Lori D. Daniels & Charles W. Lafon & Rachel, 2025. "A fire deficit persists across diverse North American forests despite recent increases in area burned," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-13, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-56333-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-56333-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Max A. Moritz & Enric Batllori & Ross A. Bradstock & A. Malcolm Gill & John Handmer & Paul F. Hessburg & Justin Leonard & Sarah McCaffrey & Dennis C. Odion & Tania Schoennagel & Alexandra D. Syphard, 2014. "Learning to coexist with wildfire," Nature, Nature, vol. 515(7525), pages 58-66, November.
    2. Aaida A. Mamuji & Jack L. Rozdilsky, 2019. "Wildfire as an increasingly common natural disaster facing Canada: understanding the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 98(1), pages 163-180, August.
    3. Mark R. Kreider & Philip E. Higuera & Sean A. Parks & William L. Rice & Nadia White & Andrew J. Larson, 2024. "Fire suppression makes wildfires more severe and accentuates impacts of climate change and fuel accumulation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
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