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Declining precipitation frequency may drive earlier leaf senescence by intensifying drought stress and enhancing drought acclimation

Author

Listed:
  • Xinyi Zhang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Tianjin University)

  • Xiaoyue Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Constantin M. Zohner

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Josep Peñuelas

    (Bellaterra
    Cerdanyola del Valles)

  • Yang Li

    (University of Arizona)

  • Xiuchen Wu

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Yao Zhang

    (Peking University)

  • Huiying Liu

    (East China Normal University)

  • Pengju Shen

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Xiaoxu Jia

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Wenbin Liu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Dashuan Tian

    (University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Cerdanyola del Valles)

  • Prajal Pradhan

    (University of Groningen
    Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Adandé Belarmain Fandohan

    (Université Nationale d’Agriculture)

  • Dailiang Peng

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Chaoyang Wu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Precipitation is an important factor influencing the date of foliar senescence, which in turn affects carbon uptake of terrestrial ecosystems. However, the temporal patterns of precipitation frequency and its impact on foliar senescence date remain largely unknown. Using both long-term carbon flux data and satellite observations across the Northern Hemisphere, we show that, after excluding impacts from of temperature, radiation and total precipitation by partial correlation analysis, declining precipitation frequency may drive earlier foliar senescence date from 1982 to 2022. A decrease in precipitation frequency intensifies drought stress by reducing root-zone soil moisture and increasing atmospheric dryness, and limit the photosynthesis necessary for sustained growth. The enhanced drought acclimation, showing a more rapid response to drought, also explains the positive relationship between precipitation frequency and foliar senescence date. Finally, we find 30 current state-of-art Earth system models largely fail to capture the sensitivity of DFS to changes in precipitation frequency and incorrectly predict the direction of correlations for approximately half of the northern global lands, in both historical simulations and future predictions. Our results therefore highlight the critical need to include precipitation frequency, rather than just total precipitation, into models to accurately forecast plant phenology under future climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Xinyi Zhang & Xiaoyue Wang & Constantin M. Zohner & Josep Peñuelas & Yang Li & Xiuchen Wu & Yao Zhang & Huiying Liu & Pengju Shen & Xiaoxu Jia & Wenbin Liu & Dashuan Tian & Prajal Pradhan & Adandé Bel, 2025. "Declining precipitation frequency may drive earlier leaf senescence by intensifying drought stress and enhancing drought acclimation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-9, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-56159-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-56159-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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