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Strength and durability of indirect protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection through vaccine and infection-acquired immunity

Author

Listed:
  • Sophia T. Tan

    (Stanford University)

  • Isabel Rodríguez-Barraquer

    (University of California)

  • Ada T. Kwan

    (University of California)

  • Seth Blumberg

    (University of California
    University of California)

  • Hailey J. Park

    (Stanford University)

  • Justine Hutchinson

    (California Correctional Health Care Services)

  • David Leidner

    (California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation)

  • Joseph A. Lewnard

    (University of California
    University of California
    University of California)

  • David Sears

    (University of California)

  • Nathan C. Lo

    (Stanford University)

Abstract

Early investigation revealed a reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection among social contacts of COVID-19 vaccinated individuals, referred to as indirect protection. However, indirect protection from SARS-CoV-2 infection-acquired immunity and its comparative strength and durability to vaccine-derived indirect protection in the current epidemiologic context of high levels of vaccination, prior infection, and novel variants are not well characterized. Here, we show that both vaccine-derived and infection-acquired immunity independently yield indirect protection to close social contacts with key differences in their strength and waning. Analyzing anonymized SARS-CoV-2 surveillance data from 9,625 residents in California state prisons from December 2021 to December 2022, we find that vaccine-derived indirect protection against Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infection is strongest within three months of COVID-19 vaccination [30% (95% confidence interval: 20–38%)] with subsequent modest protection. Infection-acquired immunity provides 38% (24–50%) indirect protection for 6 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection, with moderate indirect protection persisting for over one year. Variant-targeted vaccines (bivalent formulation including Omicron subvariants BA.4/BA.5) confer strong indirect protection for at least three months [40% (3–63%)]. These results demonstrate that both vaccine-derived and infection-acquired immunity can reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission which is important for understanding long-term transmission dynamics and can guide public health intervention, especially in high-risk environments such as prisons.

Suggested Citation

  • Sophia T. Tan & Isabel Rodríguez-Barraquer & Ada T. Kwan & Seth Blumberg & Hailey J. Park & Justine Hutchinson & David Leidner & Joseph A. Lewnard & David Sears & Nathan C. Lo, 2025. "Strength and durability of indirect protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection through vaccine and infection-acquired immunity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-55029-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-55029-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jussipekka Salo & Milla Hägg & Mika Kortelainen & Tuija Leino & Tanja Saxell & Markku Siikanen & Lauri Sääksvuori, 2022. "The indirect effect of mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccination on healthcare workers’ unvaccinated household members," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-7, December.
    2. Lior Rennert & Zichen Ma & Christopher S. McMahan & Delphine Dean, 2022. "Effectiveness and protection duration of Covid-19 vaccines and previous infection against any SARS-CoV-2 infection in young adults," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    3. Frederik Plesner Lyngse & Laust Hvas Mortensen & Matthew J. Denwood & Lasse Engbo Christiansen & Camilla Holten Møller & Robert Leo Skov & Katja Spiess & Anders Fomsgaard & Ria Lassaunière & Morten Ra, 2022. "Household transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Denmark," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-7, December.
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