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Impacts of human mobility on the citywide transmission dynamics of 18 respiratory viruses in pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic years

Author

Listed:
  • Amanda C. Perofsky

    (University of Washington
    National Institutes of Health)

  • Chelsea L. Hansen

    (University of Washington
    National Institutes of Health
    Roskilde University)

  • Roy Burstein

    (Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation)

  • Shanda Boyle

    (University of Washington)

  • Robin Prentice

    (University of Washington)

  • Cooper Marshall

    (University of Washington)

  • David Reinhart

    (University of Washington)

  • Ben Capodanno

    (University of Washington)

  • Melissa Truong

    (University of Washington)

  • Kristen Schwabe-Fry

    (University of Washington)

  • Kayla Kuchta

    (University of Washington)

  • Brian Pfau

    (University of Washington)

  • Zack Acker

    (University of Washington)

  • Jover Lee

    (Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center)

  • Thomas R. Sibley

    (Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center)

  • Evan McDermot

    (University of Washington)

  • Leslie Rodriguez-Salas

    (University of Washington)

  • Jeremy Stone

    (University of Washington)

  • Luis Gamboa

    (University of Washington)

  • Peter D. Han

    (University of Washington
    University of Washington)

  • Amanda Adler

    (Seattle Children’s Research Institute)

  • Alpana Waghmare

    (Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center
    Seattle Children’s Research Institute
    University of Washington)

  • Michael L. Jackson

    (EpiAssist LLC)

  • Michael Famulare

    (Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation)

  • Jay Shendure

    (University of Washington
    University of Washington
    Howard Hughes Medical Institute)

  • Trevor Bedford

    (University of Washington
    Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center
    University of Washington
    Howard Hughes Medical Institute)

  • Helen Y. Chu

    (University of Washington)

  • Janet A. Englund

    (University of Washington
    Seattle Children’s Research Institute
    University of Washington)

  • Lea M. Starita

    (University of Washington
    University of Washington)

  • Cécile Viboud

    (National Institutes of Health)

Abstract

Many studies have used mobile device location data to model SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, yet relationships between mobility behavior and endemic respiratory pathogens are less understood. We studied the effects of population mobility on the transmission of 17 endemic viruses and SARS-CoV-2 in Seattle over a 4-year period, 2018-2022. Before 2020, visits to schools and daycares, within-city mixing, and visitor inflow preceded or coincided with seasonal outbreaks of endemic viruses. Pathogen circulation dropped substantially after the initiation of COVID-19 stay-at-home orders in March 2020. During this period, mobility was a positive, leading indicator of transmission of all endemic viruses and lagging and negatively correlated with SARS-CoV-2 activity. Mobility was briefly predictive of SARS-CoV-2 transmission when restrictions relaxed but associations weakened in subsequent waves. The rebound of endemic viruses was heterogeneously timed but exhibited stronger, longer-lasting relationships with mobility than SARS-CoV-2. Overall, mobility is most predictive of respiratory virus transmission during periods of dramatic behavioral change and at the beginning of epidemic waves.

Suggested Citation

  • Amanda C. Perofsky & Chelsea L. Hansen & Roy Burstein & Shanda Boyle & Robin Prentice & Cooper Marshall & David Reinhart & Ben Capodanno & Melissa Truong & Kristen Schwabe-Fry & Kayla Kuchta & Brian P, 2024. "Impacts of human mobility on the citywide transmission dynamics of 18 respiratory viruses in pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic years," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-48528-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48528-2
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