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Florida Current transport observations reveal four decades of steady state

Author

Listed:
  • Denis L. Volkov

    (University of Miami
    NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory)

  • Ryan H. Smith

    (NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory)

  • Rigoberto F. Garcia

    (University of Miami
    NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory)

  • David A. Smeed

    (National Oceanography Centre)

  • Ben I. Moat

    (National Oceanography Centre)

  • William E. Johns

    (University of Miami)

  • Molly O. Baringer

    (NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory)

Abstract

The potential weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in response to anthropogenic forcing, suggested by climate models, is at the forefront of scientific debate. A key AMOC component, the Florida Current (FC), has been measured using submarine cables between Florida and the Bahamas at 27°N nearly continuously since 1982. A decrease in the FC strength could be indicative of the AMOC weakening. Here, we reassess motion-induced voltages measured on a submarine cable and reevaluate the overall trend in the inferred FC transport. We find that the cable record beginning in 2000 requires a correction for the secular change in the geomagnetic field. This correction removes a spurious trend in the record, revealing that the FC has remained remarkably stable. The recomputed AMOC estimates at ~26.5°N result in a significantly weaker negative trend than that which is apparent in the AMOC time series obtained with the uncorrected FC transports.

Suggested Citation

  • Denis L. Volkov & Ryan H. Smith & Rigoberto F. Garcia & David A. Smeed & Ben I. Moat & William E. Johns & Molly O. Baringer, 2024. "Florida Current transport observations reveal four decades of steady state," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-51879-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-51879-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stefan Rahmstorf & Jason E. Box & Georg Feulner & Michael E. Mann & Alexander Robinson & Scott Rutherford & Erik J. Schaffernicht, 2015. "Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(5), pages 475-480, May.
    2. Christopher G. Piecuch, 2020. "Likely weakening of the Florida Current during the past century revealed by sea-level observations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Niklas Boers, 2021. "Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(8), pages 680-688, August.
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