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Continuous sterane and phytane δ13C record reveals a substantial pCO2 decline since the mid-Miocene

Author

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  • Caitlyn R. Witkowski

    (NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
    and the Cabot Institute, University of Bristol)

  • Anna S. Heydt

    (Department of Physics, Utrecht University)

  • Paul J. Valdes

    (University of Bristol)

  • Marcel T. J. Meer

    (NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research)

  • Stefan Schouten

    (NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
    Utrecht University)

  • Jaap S. Sinninghe Damsté

    (NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
    Utrecht University)

Abstract

Constraining the relationship between temperature and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (pCO2) is essential to model near-future climate. Here, we reconstruct pCO2 values over the past 15 million years (Myr), providing a series of analogues for possible near-future temperatures and pCO2, from a single continuous site (DSDP Site 467, California coast). We reconstruct pCO2 values using sterane and phytane, compounds that many phytoplankton produce and then become fossilised in sediment. From 15.0-0.3 Myr ago, our reconstructed pCO2 values steadily decline from 650 ± 150 to 280 ± 75 ppmv, mirroring global temperature decline. Using our new range of pCO2 values, we calculate average Earth system sensitivity and equilibrium climate sensitivity, resulting in 13.9 °C and 7.2 °C per doubling of pCO2, respectively. These values are significantly higher than IPCC global warming estimations, consistent or higher than some recent state-of-the-art climate models, and consistent with other proxy-based estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Caitlyn R. Witkowski & Anna S. Heydt & Paul J. Valdes & Marcel T. J. Meer & Stefan Schouten & Jaap S. Sinninghe Damsté, 2024. "Continuous sterane and phytane δ13C record reveals a substantial pCO2 decline since the mid-Miocene," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-47676-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-47676-9
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    1. Gavin L. Foster & Dana L. Royer & Daniel J. Lunt, 2017. "Future climate forcing potentially without precedent in the last 420 million years," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-8, April.
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