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Estimating the effects of temperature on transmission of the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum

Author

Listed:
  • Eunho Suh

    (The Pennsylvania State University)

  • Isaac J. Stopard

    (Imperial College London)

  • Ben Lambert

    (University of Oxford)

  • Jessica L. Waite

    (The Pennsylvania State University
    University of Vermont)

  • Nina L. Dennington

    (The Pennsylvania State University)

  • Thomas S. Churcher

    (Imperial College London)

  • Matthew B. Thomas

    (The Pennsylvania State University
    University of York
    University of Florida)

Abstract

Despite concern that climate change could increase the human risk to malaria in certain areas, the temperature dependency of malaria transmission is poorly characterized. Here, we use a mechanistic model fitted to experimental data to describe how Plasmodium falciparum infection of the African malaria vector, Anopheles gambiae, is modulated by temperature, including its influences on parasite establishment, conversion efficiency through parasite developmental stages, parasite development rate, and overall vector competence. We use these data, together with estimates of the survival of infected blood-fed mosquitoes, to explore the theoretical influence of temperature on transmission in four locations in Kenya, considering recent conditions and future climate change. Results provide insights into factors limiting transmission in cooler environments and indicate that increases in malaria transmission due to climate warming in areas like the Kenyan Highlands, might be less than previously predicted.

Suggested Citation

  • Eunho Suh & Isaac J. Stopard & Ben Lambert & Jessica L. Waite & Nina L. Dennington & Thomas S. Churcher & Matthew B. Thomas, 2024. "Estimating the effects of temperature on transmission of the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-47265-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-47265-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carpenter, Bob & Gelman, Andrew & Hoffman, Matthew D. & Lee, Daniel & Goodrich, Ben & Betancourt, Michael & Brubaker, Marcus & Guo, Jiqiang & Li, Peter & Riddell, Allen, 2017. "Stan: A Probabilistic Programming Language," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 76(i01).
    2. Teresa K. Yamana & Arne Bomblies & Elfatih A. B. Eltahir, 2016. "Climate change unlikely to increase malaria burden in West Africa," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(11), pages 1009-1013, November.
    3. Erin A Mordecai & Jeremy M Cohen & Michelle V Evans & Prithvi Gudapati & Leah R Johnson & Catherine A Lippi & Kerri Miazgowicz & Courtney C Murdock & Jason R Rohr & Sadie J Ryan & Van Savage & Marta S, 2017. "Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(4), pages 1-18, April.
    4. Krijn Paaijmans & Justine Blanford & Robert Crane & Michael Mann & Liang Ning & Kathleen Schreiber & Matthew Thomas, 2014. "Downscaling reveals diverse effects of anthropogenic climate warming on the potential for local environments to support malaria transmission," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 479-488, August.
    5. Petros Damos & Polyxeni Soulopoulou, 2015. "Do Insect Populations Die at Constant Rates as They Become Older? Contrasting Demographic Failure Kinetics with Respect to Temperature According to the Weibull Model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(8), pages 1-19, August.
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