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Development transitions for fossil fuel-producing low and lower–middle income countries in a carbon-constrained world

Author

Listed:
  • Vivien Foster

    (Imperial College London)

  • Philipp A. Trotter

    (University of Wuppertal
    University of Oxford
    University of Oxford)

  • Sven Werner

    (University of Wuppertal)

  • Melin Niedermayer

    (University of Wuppertal)

  • Yacob Mulugetta

    (University College London)

  • Ploy Achakulwisut

    (Stockholm Environment Institute)

  • Aoife Brophy

    (University of Oxford
    University of Oxford)

  • Navroz K. Dubash

    (Centre for Policy Research
    National University of)

  • Sam Fankhauser

    (University of Oxford)

  • Adam Hawkes

    (Imperial College London)

  • Stephanie Hirmer

    (University of Oxford)

  • Stuart Jenkins

    (University of Oxford)

  • Sam Loni

    (University of Oxford
    Grantham Institute, London School of Economics & Political Science)

  • Alexis McGivern

    (University of Oxford
    University of Oxford)

  • Khamphone Nanthavong

    (National University of Laos)

  • Benedict Probst

    (Group for Sustainability and Technology, ETH Zurich
    University of Cambridge)

  • Steve Pye

    (University College London)

  • Vladimir Russo

    (Fundação Kissama)

  • Gregor Semieniuk

    (University of Massachusetts Amherst)

  • Carlos Shenga

    (Centre for Research on Governance and Development (CPGD))

  • Vignesh Sridharan

    (Imperial College London)

  • Sugandha Srivastav

    (University of Oxford)

  • Youba Sokona

    (Groupe de Reflection et d’Initiatives Novatrices)

  • Lucas Somavilla Croxatto

    (University College London)

  • Pu Yang

    (University of Oxford
    University of Exeter)

Abstract

The production and use of fossil fuels need to decline rapidly to limit global warming. Although global net-zero scenarios abound, the associated development ramifications for fossil fuel-producing low and lower–middle income countries (LLMICs), as well as adequate international responses, have been underexplored. Here we conceptualize that, depending on country context, three types of development transition follow from declining fossil fuel production and use for LLMIC producers, namely an energy transition, an economic transition and an equitable fossil fuel production transition. We propose a classification of these transitions, arguing that heterogeneity in LLMICs’ fossil fuel production and usage substantially impacts their pathways towards low-carbon development. We illustrate this by discussing different cases of fossil fuel-producing LLMICs, focusing on Mozambique, India, Lao PDR and Angola. We conclude by detailing context-specific international support portfolios to foster low-carbon development in fossil fuel-producing LLMICs, and call for a re-orientation of international support along principles of global solidarity.

Suggested Citation

  • Vivien Foster & Philipp A. Trotter & Sven Werner & Melin Niedermayer & Yacob Mulugetta & Ploy Achakulwisut & Aoife Brophy & Navroz K. Dubash & Sam Fankhauser & Adam Hawkes & Stephanie Hirmer & Stuart , 2024. "Development transitions for fossil fuel-producing low and lower–middle income countries in a carbon-constrained world," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 9(3), pages 242-250, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natene:v:9:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1038_s41560-023-01440-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41560-023-01440-3
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    JEL classification:

    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General

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