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Emergent constraints on carbon budgets as a function of global warming

Author

Listed:
  • Peter M. Cox

    (University of Exeter
    University of Exeter)

  • Mark S. Williamson

    (University of Exeter
    University of Exeter)

  • Pierre Friedlingstein

    (University of Exeter
    University of Exeter
    CNRS, Ecole Normale Supérieure/Université PSL, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Polytechnique)

  • Chris D. Jones

    (Met Office-Hadley Centre)

  • Nina Raoult

    (University of Exeter
    University of Exeter)

  • Joeri Rogelj

    (Centre for Environmental Policy and Grantham Institute - Climate Change and Environment, Imperial College London
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Rebecca M. Varney

    (University of Exeter
    University of Exeter)

Abstract

Earth System Models (ESMs) continue to diagnose a wide range of carbon budgets for each level of global warming. Here, we present emergent constraints on the carbon budget as a function of global warming, which combine the available ESM historical simulations and future projections for a range of scenarios, with observational estimates of global warming and anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the present day. We estimate mean and likely ranges for cumulative carbon budgets for the Paris targets of 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming of 812 [691, 933] PgC and 1048 [881, 1216] PgC, which are more than 10% larger than the ensemble mean values from the CMIP6 models. The linearity between cumulative emissions and global warming is found to be maintained at least until 4 °C, and is consistent with an effective Transient Climate Response to Emissions (eTCRE) of 2.1 [1.8, 2.6] °C/1000PgC, from a global warming of 1.2 °C onwards.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter M. Cox & Mark S. Williamson & Pierre Friedlingstein & Chris D. Jones & Nina Raoult & Joeri Rogelj & Rebecca M. Varney, 2024. "Emergent constraints on carbon budgets as a function of global warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-46137-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-46137-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joeri Rogelj & Michiel Schaeffer & Pierre Friedlingstein & Nathan P. Gillett & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Keywan Riahi & Myles Allen & Reto Knutti, 2016. "Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(3), pages 245-252, March.
    2. H. Damon Matthews & Nathan P. Gillett & Peter A. Stott & Kirsten Zickfeld, 2009. "The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions," Nature, Nature, vol. 459(7248), pages 829-832, June.
    3. Myles R. Allen & David J. Frame & Chris Huntingford & Chris D. Jones & Jason A. Lowe & Malte Meinshausen & Nicolai Meinshausen, 2009. "Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7242), pages 1163-1166, April.
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