IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v15y2024i1d10.1038_s41467-024-46137-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Emergent constraints on carbon budgets as a function of global warming

Author

Listed:
  • Peter M. Cox

    (University of Exeter
    University of Exeter)

  • Mark S. Williamson

    (University of Exeter
    University of Exeter)

  • Pierre Friedlingstein

    (University of Exeter
    University of Exeter
    CNRS, Ecole Normale Supérieure/Université PSL, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Polytechnique)

  • Chris D. Jones

    (Met Office-Hadley Centre)

  • Nina Raoult

    (University of Exeter
    University of Exeter)

  • Joeri Rogelj

    (Centre for Environmental Policy and Grantham Institute - Climate Change and Environment, Imperial College London
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Rebecca M. Varney

    (University of Exeter
    University of Exeter)

Abstract

Earth System Models (ESMs) continue to diagnose a wide range of carbon budgets for each level of global warming. Here, we present emergent constraints on the carbon budget as a function of global warming, which combine the available ESM historical simulations and future projections for a range of scenarios, with observational estimates of global warming and anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the present day. We estimate mean and likely ranges for cumulative carbon budgets for the Paris targets of 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming of 812 [691, 933] PgC and 1048 [881, 1216] PgC, which are more than 10% larger than the ensemble mean values from the CMIP6 models. The linearity between cumulative emissions and global warming is found to be maintained at least until 4 °C, and is consistent with an effective Transient Climate Response to Emissions (eTCRE) of 2.1 [1.8, 2.6] °C/1000PgC, from a global warming of 1.2 °C onwards.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter M. Cox & Mark S. Williamson & Pierre Friedlingstein & Chris D. Jones & Nina Raoult & Joeri Rogelj & Rebecca M. Varney, 2024. "Emergent constraints on carbon budgets as a function of global warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-46137-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-46137-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-46137-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-024-46137-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. H. Damon Matthews & Nathan P. Gillett & Peter A. Stott & Kirsten Zickfeld, 2009. "The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions," Nature, Nature, vol. 459(7248), pages 829-832, June.
    2. Myles R. Allen & David J. Frame & Chris Huntingford & Chris D. Jones & Jason A. Lowe & Malte Meinshausen & Nicolai Meinshausen, 2009. "Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7242), pages 1163-1166, April.
    3. Joeri Rogelj & Michiel Schaeffer & Pierre Friedlingstein & Nathan P. Gillett & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Keywan Riahi & Myles Allen & Reto Knutti, 2016. "Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(3), pages 245-252, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Irina Melnikova & Tokuta Yokohata & Akihiko Ito & Kazuya Nishina & Kaoru Tachiiri & Hideo Shiogama, 2024. "Emergent constraints on future Amazon climate change-induced carbon loss using past global warming trends," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-8, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. van den Bijgaart, Inge & Rodriguez, Mauricio, 2023. "Closing wells: Fossil development and abandonment in the energy transition," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Sandy Avrutin & Philip Goodwin & Thomas H. G. Ezard, 2023. "Assessing the remaining carbon budget through the lens of policy-driven acidification and temperature targets," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(9), pages 1-18, September.
    3. Napp, T.A. & Few, S. & Sood, A. & Bernie, D. & Hawkes, A. & Gambhir, A., 2019. "The role of advanced demand-sector technologies and energy demand reduction in achieving ambitious carbon budgets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 351-367.
    4. Dietz, Simon & Gollier, Christian & Kessler, Louise, 2018. "The climate beta," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 258-274.
    5. Gustav Engström & Johan Gars, 2016. "Climatic Tipping Points and Optimal Fossil-Fuel Use," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 65(3), pages 541-571, November.
    6. Adam Michael Bauer & Cristian Proistosescu & Gernot Wagner, 2023. "Carbon Dioxide as a Risky Asset," CESifo Working Paper Series 10278, CESifo.
    7. Frederick Ploeg, 2021. "Carbon pricing under uncertainty," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(5), pages 1122-1142, October.
    8. Oskar Lecuyer & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2013. "Assessing and ordering investments in polluting fossil-fueled and zero-carbon capital," CIRED Working Papers hal-00850680, HAL.
    9. Miftakhova, Alena & Judd, Kenneth L. & Lontzek, Thomas S. & Schmedders, Karl, 2020. "Statistical approximation of high-dimensional climate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 67-80.
    10. Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & Hallegatte, Stéphane, 2014. "Marginal abatement cost curves and the optimal timing of mitigation measures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 645-653.
    11. Marcel Nutz & Florian Stebegg, 2022. "Climate change adaptation under heterogeneous beliefs," Mathematics and Financial Economics, Springer, volume 16, number 3, December.
    12. Lorenzo Pellegrini & Murat Arsel & Gorka Muñoa & Guillem Rius-Taberner & Carlos Mena & Martí Orta-Martínez, 2024. "The atlas of unburnable oil for supply-side climate policies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    13. Nicolas Taconet & Céline Guivarch & Antonin Pottier, 2019. "Social Cost of Carbon under stochastic tipping points: when does risk play a role?," Working Papers hal-02408904, HAL.
    14. Emanuele Campiglio & Alessandro Spiganti & Anthony Wiskich, 2023. "Clean innovation and heterogeneous financing costs," Working Papers 2023: 07, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    15. Renaud Coulomb & Oskar Lecuyer & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2019. "Optimal Transition from Coal to Gas and Renewable Power Under Capacity Constraints and Adjustment Costs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(2), pages 557-590, June.
    16. Francesco Lamperti & Valentina Bosetti & Andrea Roventini & Massimo Tavoni, 2019. "The public costs of climate-induced financial instability," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(11), pages 829-833, November.
    17. Jung, Sungyup & Lee, Jechan & Moon, Deok Hyun & Kim, Ki-Hyun & Kwon, Eilhann E., 2021. "Upgrading biogas into syngas through dry reforming," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    18. Bruno Conte & Klaus Desmet & Dávid Krisztián Nagy & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2021. "Local sectoral specialization in a warming world," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 493-530.
    19. Adeline Gueret & Paul Malliet & Aurélien Saussay & Xavier Timbeau, 2018. "An explorative evaluation of the climate debt," Post-Print hal-03475423, HAL.
    20. Adrien Vogt-Schilb & Guy Meunier & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2013. "Should marginal abatement costs differ across sectors? The effect of low-carbon capital accumulation," Working Papers hal-00850682, HAL.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-46137-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.