Long-term sea level rise modeling of a basin-tidal inlet system reveals sediment sinks

Much of the world’s population lives close to coastlines and this proximity is becoming increasingly impactful because of sea-level rise (SLR). Barrier islands and backbarrier saltmarshes, which comprise >10% of these coasts, are particularly susceptible. To better understand this risk, we model backbarrier morphologic and hydrodynamic evolution over a 200-year period of SLR, incorporating an erodible bed and a range of grain sizes. Here, we show that reduction in intertidal area creates negative feedback, shifting transport of coarse sediment (silt and sand) through the inlet from net export to net import. Imposing a modest marsh vertical accretion rate decreases the period of silt and sand import to 40 years (years 90 to 130) before being exported again. Clay is continuously exported thereby decreasing inorganic deposition on marshes and threatening their sustainability. Simulated marsh loss increases tidal prism and the volume of sand contained in ebb deltas, depleting coastal sand resources.