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Overestimation of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew L. Kirwan

    (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William and Mary)

  • Stijn Temmerman

    (University of Antwerpen, Ecosystem Management Research Group)

  • Emily E. Skeehan

    (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William and Mary)

  • Glenn R. Guntenspergen

    (United States Geological Survey, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center)

  • Sergio Fagherazzi

    (Boston University, Earth and Environment)

Abstract

In this Perspective it is argued that coastal marsh vulnerability is often overstated because assessments generally neglect feedback processes known to accelerate soil building with sea level rise, as well as the potential for marshes to migrate inland.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew L. Kirwan & Stijn Temmerman & Emily E. Skeehan & Glenn R. Guntenspergen & Sergio Fagherazzi, 2016. "Overestimation of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(3), pages 253-260, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:6:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1038_nclimate2909
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2909
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kendall Valentine & Ellen R. Herbert & David C. Walters & Yaping Chen & Alexander J. Smith & Matthew L. Kirwan, 2023. "Climate-driven tradeoffs between landscape connectivity and the maintenance of the coastal carbon sink," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. J. L. Rolando & M. Kolton & T. Song & Y. Liu & P. Pinamang & R. Conrad & J. T. Morris & K. T. Konstantinidis & J. E. Kostka, 2024. "Sulfur oxidation and reduction are coupled to nitrogen fixation in the roots of the salt marsh foundation plant Spartina alterniflora," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Leonard O. Ohenhen & Manoochehr Shirzaei & Chandrakanta Ojha & Matthew L. Kirwan, 2023. "Hidden vulnerability of US Atlantic coast to sea-level rise due to vertical land motion," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Carus, Jana & Heuner, Maike & Paul, Maike & Schröder, Boris, 2017. "Which factors and processes drive the spatio-temporal dynamics of brackish marshes?—Insights from development and parameterisation of a mechanistic vegetation model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 363(C), pages 122-136.
    5. Vinent, Orencio Duran & Johnston, Robert J. & Kirwan, Matthew L. & Leroux, Anke D. & Martin, Vance L., 2019. "Coastal dynamics and adaptation to uncertain sea level rise: Optimal portfolios for salt marsh migration," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    6. Vincent T. M. Zelst & Jasper T. Dijkstra & Bregje K. Wesenbeeck & Dirk Eilander & Edward P. Morris & Hessel C. Winsemius & Philip J. Ward & Mindert B. Vries, 2021. "Cutting the costs of coastal protection by integrating vegetation in flood defences," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Kevin C. Hanegan & Duncan M. FitzGerald & Ioannis Y. Georgiou & Zoe J. Hughes, 2023. "Long-term sea level rise modeling of a basin-tidal inlet system reveals sediment sinks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    8. Zezheng Liu & Sergio Fagherazzi & Qiang He & Olivier Gourgue & Junhong Bai & Xinhui Liu & Chiyuan Miao & Zhan Hu & Baoshan Cui, 2024. "A global meta-analysis on the drivers of salt marsh planting success and implications for ecosystem services," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    9. Sinéad M. Crotty & Daniele Pinton & Alberto Canestrelli & Hallie S. Fischman & Collin Ortals & Nicholas R. Dahl & Sydney Williams & Tjeerd J. Bouma & Christine Angelini, 2023. "Faunal engineering stimulates landscape-scale accretion in southeastern US salt marshes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    10. Poppe, Katrina L. & Rybczyk, John M., 2022. "Assessing the future of an intertidal seagrass meadow in response to sea level rise with a hybrid ecogeomorphic model of elevation change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 469(C).
    11. Guandong Li & Torbjörn E. Törnqvist & Sönke Dangendorf, 2024. "Real-world time-travel experiment shows ecosystem collapse due to anthropogenic climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    12. Xuejiao Hou & Danghan Xie & Lian Feng & Fang Shen & Jaap H. Nienhuis, 2024. "Sustained increase in suspended sediments near global river deltas over the past two decades," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    13. Fernanda Achete & Mick van der Wegen & Jan Adriaan Roelvink & Bruce Jaffe, 2017. "How can climate change and engineered water conveyance affect sediment dynamics in the San Francisco Bay-Delta system?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(3), pages 375-389, June.
    14. Sèna Donalde Dolorès Marguerite Deguenon & Castro Gbêmêmali Hounmenou & Richard Adade & Oscar Teka & Ismaila Imorou Toko & Denis Worlanyo Aheto & Brice Sinsin, 2023. "Simulation of the Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Ecosystems in Benin Using a Combined Approach of Machine Learning and the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-17, November.
    15. Pablo Fraile-Jurado & José I. Álvarez-Francoso & Emilia Guisado-Pintado & Noela Sánchez-Carnero & José Ojeda-Zújar & Stephen P. Leatherman, 2017. "Mapping inundation probability due to increasing sea level rise along El Puerto de Santa María (SW Spain)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(2), pages 581-598, June.

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