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Aerosols overtake greenhouse gases causing a warmer climate and more weather extremes toward carbon neutrality

Author

Listed:
  • Pinya Wang

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology)

  • Yang Yang

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology)

  • Daokai Xue

    (Nanjing University)

  • Lili Ren

    (Jiangsu Open University)

  • Jianping Tang

    (Nanjing University)

  • L. Ruby Leung

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Hong Liao

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology)

Abstract

To mitigate climate warming, many countries have committed to achieve carbon neutrality in the mid-21st century. Here, we assess the global impacts of changing greenhouse gases (GHGs), aerosols, and tropospheric ozone (O3) following a carbon neutrality pathway on climate and extreme weather events individually using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). The results suggest that the future aerosol reductions significantly contribute to climate warming and increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weathers toward carbon neutrality and aerosol impacts far outweigh those of GHGs and tropospheric O3. It reverses the knowledge that the changing GHGs dominate the future climate changes as predicted in the middle of the road pathway. Therefore, substantial reductions in GHGs and tropospheric O3 are necessary to reach the 1.5 °C warming target and mitigate the harmful effects of concomitant aerosol reductions on climate and extreme weather events under carbon neutrality in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Pinya Wang & Yang Yang & Daokai Xue & Lili Ren & Jianping Tang & L. Ruby Leung & Hong Liao, 2023. "Aerosols overtake greenhouse gases causing a warmer climate and more weather extremes toward carbon neutrality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-42891-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-42891-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yang Yang & Lili Ren & Mingxuan Wu & Hailong Wang & Fengfei Song & L. Ruby Leung & Xin Hao & Jiandong Li & Lei Chen & Huimin Li & Liangying Zeng & Yang Zhou & Pinya Wang & Hong Liao & Jing Wang & Zhen, 2022. "Abrupt emissions reductions during COVID-19 contributed to record summer rainfall in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-7, December.
    2. Andrew D. King & Todd P. Lane & Benjamin J. Henley & Josephine R. Brown, 2020. "Global and regional impacts differ between transient and equilibrium warmer worlds," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 42-47, January.
    3. Soong-Ki Kim & Jongsoo Shin & Soon-Il An & Hyo-Jeong Kim & Nari Im & Shang-Ping Xie & Jong-Seong Kug & Sang-Wook Yeh, 2022. "Widespread irreversible changes in surface temperature and precipitation in response to CO2 forcing," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(9), pages 834-840, September.
    4. Hui Yang & Xinyuan Huang & Daniel M. Westervelt & Larry Horowitz & Wei Peng, 2023. "Socio-demographic factors shaping the future global health burden from air pollution," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 58-68, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Phella, Anthoulla & Gabriel, Vasco J. & Martins, Luis F., 2024. "Predicting tail risks and the evolution of temperatures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).

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