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Enhanced joint impact of western hemispheric precursors increases extreme El Niño frequency under greenhouse warming

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  • Hyun-Su Jo

    (Chonnam National University)

  • Yoo-Geun Ham

    (Chonnam National University)

Abstract

Sea surface temperature variability over the north tropical Atlantic (NTA) and over the subtropical northeast Pacific (SNP), which is referred to as the North Pacific Meridional Mode, during the early boreal spring is known to trigger El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The future changes of the influence of those northwestern hemispheric precursors on ENSO are usually examined separately, even though their joint impacts significantly differ from the individual impacts. Here, we show that the impacts of both NTA and SNP on ENSO significantly increase under greenhouse warming and that the degrees of enhancement are closely linked. The wetter mean state over the off-equatorial eastern Pacific is a single contributor that controls the impacts of both NTA and SNP on ENSO. The enhanced joint impacts of the northwestern hemispheric precursors on ENSO increase the occurrences of extreme El Niño events and the ENSO predictability under greenhouse warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Hyun-Su Jo & Yoo-Geun Ham, 2023. "Enhanced joint impact of western hemispheric precursors increases extreme El Niño frequency under greenhouse warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-42115-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-42115-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matthew Collins & Richard E. Chandler & Peter M. Cox & John M. Huthnance & Jonathan Rougier & David B. Stephenson, 2012. "Quantifying future climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(6), pages 403-409, June.
    2. Lei Wang & Jin-Yi Yu & Houk Paek, 2017. "Enhanced biennial variability in the Pacific due to Atlantic capacitor effect," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-7, April.
    3. Wenjun Zhang & Feng Jiang & Malte F. Stuecker & Fei-Fei Jin & Axel Timmermann, 2021. "Spurious North Tropical Atlantic precursors to El Niño," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    4. Yoo-Geun Ham & Jong-Seong Kug & Jun-Young Choi & Fei-Fei Jin & Masahiro Watanabe, 2018. "Inverse relationship between present-day tropical precipitation and its sensitivity to greenhouse warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 64-69, January.
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