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Inverse relationship between present-day tropical precipitation and its sensitivity to greenhouse warming

Author

Listed:
  • Yoo-Geun Ham

    (Chonnam National University)

  • Jong-Seong Kug

    (Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH))

  • Jun-Young Choi

    (Chonnam National University)

  • Fei-Fei Jin

    (University of Hawaii at Manoa)

  • Masahiro Watanabe

    (University of Tokyo)

Abstract

Future changes in rainfall have serious impacts on human adaptation to climate change, but quantification of these changes is subject to large uncertainties in climate model projections. To narrow these uncertainties, significant efforts have been made to understand the intermodel differences in future rainfall changes. Here, we show a strong inverse relationship between present-day precipitation and its future change to possibly calibrate future precipitation change by removing the present-day bias in climate models. The results of the models with less tropical (40° S–40° N) present-day precipitation are closely linked to the dryness over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific, and project weaker regional precipitation increase due to the anthropogenic greenhouse forcing 1–6 with stronger zonal Walker circulation. This induces Indo-western Pacific warming through Bjerknes feedback, which reduces relative humidity by the enhanced atmospheric boundary-layer mixing in the future projection. This increases the air–sea humidity difference to enhance tropical evaporation and the resultant precipitation. Our estimation of the sensitivity of the tropical precipitation per 1 K warming, after removing a common bias in the present-day simulation, is about 50% greater than the original future multi-model projection.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoo-Geun Ham & Jong-Seong Kug & Jun-Young Choi & Fei-Fei Jin & Masahiro Watanabe, 2018. "Inverse relationship between present-day tropical precipitation and its sensitivity to greenhouse warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 64-69, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:8:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41558-017-0033-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-017-0033-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Hyun-Su Jo & Yoo-Geun Ham, 2023. "Enhanced joint impact of western hemispheric precursors increases extreme El Niño frequency under greenhouse warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.

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