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Spurious North Tropical Atlantic precursors to El Niño

Author

Listed:
  • Wenjun Zhang

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology)

  • Feng Jiang

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology)

  • Malte F. Stuecker

    (University of Hawai’i at Mānoa)

  • Fei-Fei Jin

    (University of Hawai’i at Mānoa)

  • Axel Timmermann

    (Center for Climate Physics
    Pusan National University)

Abstract

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the primary driver of year-to-year global climate variability, is known to influence the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST), especially during boreal spring season. Focusing on statistical lead-lag relationships, previous studies have proposed that interannual NTA SST variability can also feed back on ENSO in a predictable manner. However, these studies did not properly account for ENSO’s autocorrelation and the fact that the SST in the Atlantic and Pacific, as well as their interaction are seasonally modulated. This can lead to misinterpretations of causality and the spurious identification of Atlantic precursors for ENSO. Revisiting this issue under consideration of seasonality, time-varying ENSO frequency, and greenhouse warming, we demonstrate that the cross-correlation characteristics between NTA SST and ENSO, are consistent with a one-way Pacific to Atlantic forcing, even though the interpretation of lead-lag relationships may suggest otherwise.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenjun Zhang & Feng Jiang & Malte F. Stuecker & Fei-Fei Jin & Axel Timmermann, 2021. "Spurious North Tropical Atlantic precursors to El Niño," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-23411-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23411-6
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    Cited by:

    1. Hyun-Su Jo & Yoo-Geun Ham, 2023. "Enhanced joint impact of western hemispheric precursors increases extreme El Niño frequency under greenhouse warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Yumin Liu & Kate Duffy & Jennifer G. Dy & Auroop R. Ganguly, 2023. "Explainable deep learning for insights in El Niño and river flows," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
    3. Siying Liu & Ping Chang & Xiuquan Wan & Stephen G. Yeager & Ingo Richter, 2023. "Role of the Maritime Continent in the remote influence of Atlantic Niño on the Pacific," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.

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