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Emergent increase in coral thermal tolerance reduces mass bleaching under climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Liam Lachs

    (Newcastle University
    University of British Columbia)

  • Simon D. Donner

    (University of British Columbia)

  • Peter J. Mumby

    (The University of Queensland
    Palau International Coral Reef Center)

  • John C. Bythell

    (Newcastle University)

  • Adriana Humanes

    (Newcastle University)

  • Holly K. East

    (Northumbria University)

  • James R. Guest

    (Newcastle University)

Abstract

Recurrent mass bleaching events threaten the future of coral reefs. To persist under climate change, corals will need to endure progressively more intense and frequent marine heatwaves, yet it remains unknown whether their thermal tolerance can keep pace with warming. Here, we reveal an emergent increase in the thermal tolerance of coral assemblages at a rate of 0.1 °C/decade for a remote Pacific coral reef system. This led to less severe bleaching impacts than would have been predicted otherwise, indicating adaptation, acclimatisation or shifts in community structure. Using future climate projections, we show that if thermal tolerance continues to rise over the coming century at the most-likely historic rate, substantial reductions in bleaching trajectories are possible. High-frequency bleaching can be fully mitigated at some reefs under low-to-middle emissions scenarios, yet can only be delayed under high emissions scenarios. Collectively, our results indicate a potential ecological resilience to climate change, but still highlight the need for reducing carbon emissions in line with Paris Agreement commitments to preserve coral reefs.

Suggested Citation

  • Liam Lachs & Simon D. Donner & Peter J. Mumby & John C. Bythell & Adriana Humanes & Holly K. East & James R. Guest, 2023. "Emergent increase in coral thermal tolerance reduces mass bleaching under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-40601-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-40601-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kathryn E. Smith & Margot Aubin & Michael T. Burrows & Karen Filbee-Dexter & Alistair J. Hobday & Neil J. Holbrook & Nathan G. King & Pippa J. Moore & Alex Sen Gupta & Mads Thomsen & Thomas Wernberg &, 2024. "Global impacts of marine heatwaves on coastal foundation species," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.

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