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Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability

Author

Listed:
  • Tamsin L. Edwards

    (King’s College London)

  • Mark A. Brandon

    (Open University)

  • Gael Durand

    (Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, IGE)

  • Neil R. Edwards

    (Open University)

  • Nicholas R. Golledge

    (Victoria University of Wellington
    GNS Science, Avalon)

  • Philip B. Holden

    (Open University)

  • Isabel J. Nias

    (Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center)

  • Antony J. Payne

    (University of Bristol)

  • Catherine Ritz

    (Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, IGE)

  • Andreas Wernecke

    (Open University)

Abstract

Predictions for sea-level rise this century due to melt from Antarctica range from zero to more than one metre. The highest predictions are driven by the controversial marine ice-cliff instability (MICI) hypothesis, which assumes that coastal ice cliffs can rapidly collapse after ice shelves disintegrate, as a result of surface and sub-shelf melting caused by global warming. But MICI has not been observed in the modern era and it remains unclear whether it is required to reproduce sea-level variations in the geological past. Here we quantify ice-sheet modelling uncertainties for the original MICI study and show that the probability distributions are skewed towards lower values (under very high greenhouse gas concentrations, the most likely value is 45 centimetres). However, MICI is not required to reproduce sea-level changes due to Antarctic ice loss in the mid-Pliocene epoch, the last interglacial period or 1992–2017; without it we find that the projections agree with previous studies (all 95th percentiles are less than 43 centimetres). We conclude that previous interpretations of these MICI projections over-estimate sea-level rise this century; because the MICI hypothesis is not well constrained, confidence in projections with MICI would require a greater range of observationally constrained models of ice-shelf vulnerability and ice-cliff collapse.

Suggested Citation

  • Tamsin L. Edwards & Mark A. Brandon & Gael Durand & Neil R. Edwards & Nicholas R. Golledge & Philip B. Holden & Isabel J. Nias & Antony J. Payne & Catherine Ritz & Andreas Wernecke, 2019. "Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability," Nature, Nature, vol. 566(7742), pages 58-64, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:566:y:2019:i:7742:d:10.1038_s41586-019-0901-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-0901-4
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Anna Ruth W. Halberstadt & Edward Gasson & David Pollard & James Marschalek & Robert M. DeConto, 2024. "Geologically constrained 2-million-year-long simulations of Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat and expansion through the Pliocene," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Dario Domingo & Mohammad Royapoor & Hailiang Du & Aaron Boranian & Sara Walker & Michael Goldstein, 2024. "Calibration under Uncertainty Using Bayesian Emulation and History Matching: Methods and Illustration on a Building Energy Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-28, August.
    3. Stewart S. R. Jamieson & Neil Ross & Guy J. G. Paxman & Fiona J. Clubb & Duncan A. Young & Shuai Yan & Jamin Greenbaum & Donald D. Blankenship & Martin J. Siegert, 2023. "An ancient river landscape preserved beneath the East Antarctic Ice Sheet," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Jasper Verschuur & Dewi Bars & Caroline A. Katsman & Sierd de Vries & Roshanka Ranasinghe & Sybren S. Drijfhout & Stefan G. J. Aarninkhof, 2020. "Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 859-876, September.
    5. Jun-Young Park & Fabian Schloesser & Axel Timmermann & Dipayan Choudhury & June-Yi Lee & Arjun Babu Nellikkattil, 2023. "Future sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-sheet model," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    6. Nicholas R. Golledge, 2020. "Long‐term projections of sea‐level rise from ice sheets," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), March.
    7. David K. Hutchinson & Laurie Menviel & Katrin J. Meissner & Andrew McC. Hogg, 2024. "East Antarctic warming forced by ice loss during the Last Interglacial," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    8. Sally Brown & Katie Jenkins & Philip Goodwin & Daniel Lincke & Athanasios T. Vafeidis & Richard S. J. Tol & Rhosanna Jenkins & Rachel Warren & Robert J. Nicholls & Svetlana Jevrejeva & Agustin Sanchez, 2021. "Global costs of protecting against sea-level rise at 1.5 to 4.0 °C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-21, July.
    9. Pertierra, L.R. & Santos-Martin, F. & Hughes, K.A. & Avila, C. & Caceres, J.O. & De Filippo, D. & Gonzalez, S. & Grant, S.M. & Lynch, H. & Marina-Montes, C. & Quesada, A. & Tejedo, P. & Tin, T. & Bena, 2021. "Ecosystem services in Antarctica: Global assessment of the current state, future challenges and managing opportunities," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    10. Rachel Warren & Oliver Andrews & Sally Brown & Felipe J. Colón-González & Nicole Forstenhäusler & David E. H. J. Gernaat & P. Goodwin & Ian Harris & Yi He & Chris Hope & Desmond Manful & Timothy J. Os, 2022. "Quantifying risks avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-16, June.

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