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Southern Indian Ocean Dipole as a trigger for Central Pacific El Niño since the 2000s

Author

Listed:
  • Hyun-Su Jo

    (Chonnam National University)

  • Yoo-Geun Ham

    (Chonnam National University)

  • Jong-Seong Kug

    (Pohang University of Science and Technology)

  • Tim Li

    (University of Hawaii at Manoa
    Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology)

  • Jeong-Hwan Kim

    (Chonnam National University)

  • Ji-Gwang Kim

    (Chonnam National University)

  • Hyerim Kim

    (Hanyang University, ERICA)

Abstract

Despite decades of effort, predicting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since the 2000s has become increasingly challenging. This is due to the weaker coupling between the ENSO and well-known precursors in tropical ocean basins, particularly in the Indian Ocean. Here we show that the Southern Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD), which is characterized by an east-west-oriented sea surface temperature dipole pattern over the southern Indian Ocean, has become a key precursor of Central Pacific El Niño since the 2000s with a 14-month lead. The role of the SIOD in the subsequent year’s ENSO is distinctive from the equatorial Indian Ocean Dipole mode in that it prolongs the ENSO period. The westward-shifted ENSO has sustained simultaneous SIOD events for longer periods since the 2000s, which leads to weak but persistent westerly anomalies over the western Pacific. This eventually results in the development of the Central Pacific El Niño in the subsequent year.

Suggested Citation

  • Hyun-Su Jo & Yoo-Geun Ham & Jong-Seong Kug & Tim Li & Jeong-Hwan Kim & Ji-Gwang Kim & Hyerim Kim, 2022. "Southern Indian Ocean Dipole as a trigger for Central Pacific El Niño since the 2000s," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-34721-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34721-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter J. Webster & Andrew M. Moore & Johannes P. Loschnigg & Robert R. Leben, 1999. "Coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997–98," Nature, Nature, vol. 401(6751), pages 356-360, September.
    2. Sang-Wook Yeh & Jong-Seong Kug & Boris Dewitte & Min-Ho Kwon & Ben P. Kirtman & Fei-Fei Jin, 2009. "El Niño in a changing climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 461(7263), pages 511-514, September.
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