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Coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997–98

Author

Listed:
  • Peter J. Webster

    (Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Campus Box 311, University of Colorado)

  • Andrew M. Moore

    (Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Campus Box 311, University of Colorado)

  • Johannes P. Loschnigg

    (Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Campus Box 311, University of Colorado)

  • Robert R. Leben

    (Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, University of Colorado)

Abstract

Climate variability in the Indian Ocean region seems to be, in some aspects, independent of forcing by external phenomena such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation1,2,3,4. But the extent to which, and how, internal coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics determine the state of the Indian Ocean system have not been resolved. Here we present a detailed analysis of the strong seasonal anomalies in sea surface temperatures, sea surface heights, precipitation and winds that occurred in the Indian Ocean region in 1997–98, and compare the results with the record of Indian Ocean climate variability over the past 40 years. We conclude that the 1997–98 anomalies—in spite of the coincidence with the strong El Niño/Southern Oscillation event—may primarily be an expression of internal dynamics, rather than a direct response to external influences. We propose a mechanism of ocean–atmosphere interaction governing the 1997–98 event that may represent a characteristic internal mode of the Indian Ocean climate system. In the Pacific Ocean, the identification of such a mode has led to successful predictions of El Niño5; if the proposed Indian Ocean internal mode proves to be robust, there may be a similar potential for predictability of climate in the Indian Ocean region.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter J. Webster & Andrew M. Moore & Johannes P. Loschnigg & Robert R. Leben, 1999. "Coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997–98," Nature, Nature, vol. 401(6751), pages 356-360, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:401:y:1999:i:6751:d:10.1038_43848
    DOI: 10.1038/43848
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    Cited by:

    1. Wenju Cai & Yi Liu & Xiaopei Lin & Ziguang Li & Ying Zhang & David Newth, 2024. "Nonlinear country-heterogenous impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on global economies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Sridhar Gummadi & M D M Kadiyala & K P C Rao & Ioannis Athanasiadis & Richard Mulwa & Mary Kilavi & Gizachew Legesse & Tilahun Amede, 2020. "Simulating adaptation strategies to offset potential impacts of climate variability and change on maize yields in Embu County, Kenya," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(11), pages 1-29, November.
    3. Hyun-Su Jo & Yoo-Geun Ham & Jong-Seong Kug & Tim Li & Jeong-Hwan Kim & Ji-Gwang Kim & Hyerim Kim, 2022. "Southern Indian Ocean Dipole as a trigger for Central Pacific El Niño since the 2000s," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    4. Li Zhang & Xuya Ren & Wenju Cai & Xichen Li & Lixin Wu, 2024. "Weakened western Indian Ocean dominance on Antarctic sea ice variability in a changing climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Omid Alizadeh, 2022. "Advances and challenges in climate modeling," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-26, January.
    6. D. Chiru Naik & Sagar Rohidas Chavan & P. Sonali, 2023. "Incorporating the climate oscillations in the computation of meteorological drought over India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 2617-2646, July.

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