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The combination of genomic offset and niche modelling provides insights into climate change-driven vulnerability

Author

Listed:
  • Yilin Chen

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Zhiyong Jiang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Ping Fan

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Per G. P. Ericson

    (Swedish Museum of Natural History)

  • Gang Song

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Xu Luo

    (Southwest Forestry University)

  • Fumin Lei

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Yanhua Qu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Global warming is increasingly exacerbating biodiversity loss. Populations locally adapted to spatially heterogeneous environments may respond differentially to climate change, but this intraspecific variation has only recently been considered when modelling vulnerability under climate change. Here, we incorporate intraspecific variation in genomic offset and ecological niche modelling to estimate climate change-driven vulnerability in two bird species in the Sino-Himalayan Mountains. We found that the cold-tolerant populations show higher genomic offset but risk less challenge for niche suitability decline under future climate than the warm-tolerant populations. Based on a genome-niche index estimated by combining genomic offset and niche suitability change, we identified the populations with the least genome-niche interruption as potential donors for evolutionary rescue, i.e., the populations tolerant to climate change. We evaluated potential rescue routes via a landscape genetic analysis. Overall, we demonstrate that the integration of genomic offset, niche suitability modelling, and landscape connectivity can improve climate change-driven vulnerability assessments and facilitate effective conservation management.

Suggested Citation

  • Yilin Chen & Zhiyong Jiang & Ping Fan & Per G. P. Ericson & Gang Song & Xu Luo & Fumin Lei & Yanhua Qu, 2022. "The combination of genomic offset and niche modelling provides insights into climate change-driven vulnerability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-32546-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32546-z
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    1. Yinguang Hou & Junwei Gan & Zeyu Fan & Lei Sun & Vanika Garg & Yu Wang & Shanying Li & Pengfei Bao & Bingchen Cao & Rajeev K. Varshney & Hansheng Zhao, 2024. "Haplotype-based pangenomes reveal genetic variations and climate adaptations in moso bamboo populations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.

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