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Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics

Author

Listed:
  • Louise Dyson

    (University of Warwick
    Joint Universities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research)

  • Edward M. Hill

    (University of Warwick
    Joint Universities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research)

  • Sam Moore

    (University of Warwick
    Joint Universities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research)

  • Jacob Curran-Sebastian

    (Joint Universities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research
    University of Manchester)

  • Michael J. Tildesley

    (University of Warwick
    Joint Universities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research)

  • Katrina A. Lythgoe

    (Big Data Institute, Old Road Campus, University of Oxford)

  • Thomas House

    (Joint Universities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research
    University of Manchester
    IBM Research, Hartree Centre
    The Alan Turing Institute for Data Science and Artificial Intelligence)

  • Lorenzo Pellis

    (Joint Universities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research
    University of Manchester
    The Alan Turing Institute for Data Science and Artificial Intelligence)

  • Matt J. Keeling

    (University of Warwick
    Joint Universities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research)

Abstract

Viral reproduction of SARS-CoV-2 provides opportunities for the acquisition of advantageous mutations, altering viral transmissibility, disease severity, and/or allowing escape from natural or vaccine-derived immunity. We use three mathematical models: a parsimonious deterministic model with homogeneous mixing; an age-structured model; and a stochastic importation model to investigate the effect of potential variants of concern (VOCs). Calibrating to the situation in England in May 2021, we find epidemiological trajectories for putative VOCs are wide-ranging and dependent on their transmissibility, immune escape capability, and the introduction timing of a postulated VOC-targeted vaccine. We demonstrate that a VOC with a substantial transmission advantage over resident variants, or with immune escape properties, can generate a wave of infections and hospitalisations comparable to the winter 2020-2021 wave. Moreover, a variant that is less transmissible, but shows partial immune-escape could provoke a wave of infection that would not be revealed until control measures are further relaxed.

Suggested Citation

  • Louise Dyson & Edward M. Hill & Sam Moore & Jacob Curran-Sebastian & Michael J. Tildesley & Katrina A. Lythgoe & Thomas House & Lorenzo Pellis & Matt J. Keeling, 2021. "Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-25915-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25915-7
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    Cited by:

    1. González-Parra, Gilberto & Villanueva-Oller, Javier & Navarro-González, F.J. & Ceberio, Josu & Luebben, Giulia, 2024. "A network-based model to assess vaccination strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic by using Bayesian optimization," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    2. Matt J. Keeling & Louise Dyson & Michael J. Tildesley & Edward M. Hill & Samuel Moore, 2022. "Comparison of the 2021 COVID-19 roadmap projections against public health data in England," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, December.

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