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Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers

Author

Listed:
  • Shfaqat A. Khan

    (DTU Space, Technical University of Denmark)

  • Anders A. Bjørk

    (University of Copenhagen)

  • Jonathan L. Bamber

    (University of Bristol)

  • Mathieu Morlighem

    (University of California)

  • Michael Bevis

    (Ohio State University)

  • Kurt H. Kjær

    (University of Copenhagen)

  • Jérémie Mouginot

    (Université Grenoble Alpes)

  • Anja Løkkegaard

    (DTU Space, Technical University of Denmark)

  • David M. Holland

    (New York University Abu Dhabi)

  • Andy Aschwanden

    (University of Alaska Fairbanks)

  • Bao Zhang

    (Wuhan University)

  • Veit Helm

    (Alfred Wegener Institute)

  • Niels J. Korsgaard

    (Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland)

  • William Colgan

    (Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland)

  • Nicolaj K. Larsen

    (University of Copenhagen)

  • Lin Liu

    (The Chinese University of Hong Kong)

  • Karina Hansen

    (DTU Space, Technical University of Denmark)

  • Valentina Barletta

    (DTU Space, Technical University of Denmark)

  • Trine S. Dahl-Jensen

    (DTU Space, Technical University of Denmark)

  • Anne Sofie Søndergaard

    (Aarhus University)

  • Beata M. Csatho

    (University at Buffalo)

  • Ingo Sasgen

    (Alfred Wegener Institute)

  • Jason Box

    (Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland)

  • Toni Schenk

    (University at Buffalo)

Abstract

The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest land ice contributor to sea level rise. This will continue in the future but at an uncertain rate and observational estimates are limited to the last few decades. Understanding the long-term glacier response to external forcing is key to improving projections. Here we use historical photographs to calculate ice loss from 1880–2012 for Jakobshavn, Helheim, and Kangerlussuaq glacier. We estimate ice loss corresponding to a sea level rise of 8.1 ± 1.1 millimetres from these three glaciers. Projections of mass loss for these glaciers, using the worst-case scenario, Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5, suggest a sea level contribution of 9.1–14.9 mm by 2100. RCP8.5 implies an additional global temperature increase of 3.7 °C by 2100, approximately four times larger than that which has taken place since 1880. We infer that projections forced by RCP8.5 underestimate glacier mass loss which could exceed this worst-case scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Shfaqat A. Khan & Anders A. Bjørk & Jonathan L. Bamber & Mathieu Morlighem & Michael Bevis & Kurt H. Kjær & Jérémie Mouginot & Anja Løkkegaard & David M. Holland & Andy Aschwanden & Bao Zhang & Veit H, 2020. "Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-19580-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19580-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Henning Åkesson & Mathieu Morlighem & Johan Nilsson & Christian Stranne & Martin Jakobsson, 2022. "Petermann ice shelf may not recover after a future breakup," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Olga V. Sergienko, 2022. "No general stability conditions for marine ice-sheet grounding lines in the presence of feedbacks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-6, December.

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