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Marine ice-cliff instability modeling shows mixed-mode ice-cliff failure and yields calving rate parameterization

Author

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  • Anna J. Crawford

    (University of St Andrews)

  • Douglas I. Benn

    (University of St Andrews)

  • Joe Todd

    (The University of Edinburgh)

  • Jan A. Åström

    (CSC – IT Center for Science)

  • Jeremy N. Bassis

    (University of Michigan)

  • Thomas Zwinger

    (CSC – IT Center for Science)

Abstract

Marine ice-cliff instability could accelerate ice loss from Antarctica, and according to some model predictions could potentially contribute >1 m of global mean sea level rise by 2100 at current emission rates. Regions with over-deepening basins >1 km in depth (e.g., the West Antarctic Ice Sheet) are particularly susceptible to this instability, as retreat could expose increasingly tall cliffs that could exceed ice stability thresholds. Here, we use a suite of high-fidelity glacier models to improve understanding of the modes through which ice cliffs can structurally fail and derive a conservative ice-cliff failure retreat rate parameterization for ice-sheet models. Our results highlight the respective roles of viscous deformation, shear-band formation, and brittle-tensile failure within marine ice-cliff instability. Calving rates increase non-linearly with cliff height, but runaway ice-cliff retreat can be inhibited by viscous flow and back force from iceberg mélange.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna J. Crawford & Douglas I. Benn & Joe Todd & Jan A. Åström & Jeremy N. Bassis & Thomas Zwinger, 2021. "Marine ice-cliff instability modeling shows mixed-mode ice-cliff failure and yields calving rate parameterization," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-23070-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23070-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Anna Ruth W. Halberstadt & Edward Gasson & David Pollard & James Marschalek & Robert M. DeConto, 2024. "Geologically constrained 2-million-year-long simulations of Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat and expansion through the Pliocene," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Henning Åkesson & Mathieu Morlighem & Johan Nilsson & Christian Stranne & Martin Jakobsson, 2022. "Petermann ice shelf may not recover after a future breakup," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.

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