IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v13y2022i1d10.1038_s41467-022-28004-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Regional trade agreement burdens global carbon emissions mitigation

Author

Listed:
  • Kailan Tian

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Yu Zhang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Yuze Li

    (Boston University)

  • Xi Ming

    (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Shangrong Jiang

    (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Hongbo Duan

    (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Cuihong Yang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Shouyang Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Regional trade agreements (RTAs) have been widely adopted to facilitate international trade and cross-border investment and promote economic development. However, ex ante measurements of the environmental effects of RTAs to date have not been well conducted. Here, we estimate the CO2 emissions burdens of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) after evaluating its economic effects. We find that trade among RCEP member countries will increase significantly and economic output will expand with the reduction of regional tariffs. However, the results show that complete tariff elimination among RCEP members would increase the yearly global CO2 emissions from fuel combustion by about 3.1%, doubling the annual average growth rate of global CO2 emissions in the last decade. The emissions in some developing members will surge. In the longer run, the burdens can be lessened to some extent by the technological spillover effects of deeper trade liberalization. We stress that technological advancement and more effective climate policies are urgently required to avoid undermining international efforts to reduce global emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Kailan Tian & Yu Zhang & Yuze Li & Xi Ming & Shangrong Jiang & Hongbo Duan & Cuihong Yang & Shouyang Wang, 2022. "Regional trade agreement burdens global carbon emissions mitigation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-28004-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28004-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-28004-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-022-28004-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baldwin, Richard & Jaimovich, Dany, 2012. "Are Free Trade Agreements contagious?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 1-16.
    2. Zhifu Mi & Jing Meng & Dabo Guan & Yuli Shan & Malin Song & Yi-Ming Wei & Zhu Liu & Klaus Hubacek, 2017. "Chinese CO2 emission flows have reversed since the global financial crisis," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Bhagwati, Jagdish, 2008. "Termites in the Trading System: How Preferential Agreements Undermine Free Trade," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195331653.
    4. Qiang Zhang & Xujia Jiang & Dan Tong & Steven J. Davis & Hongyan Zhao & Guannan Geng & Tong Feng & Bo Zheng & Zifeng Lu & David G. Streets & Ruijing Ni & Michael Brauer & Aaron van Donkelaar & Randall, 2017. "Transboundary health impacts of transported global air pollution and international trade," Nature, Nature, vol. 543(7647), pages 705-709, March.
    5. Renuka Mahadevan & Anda Nugroho, 2019. "Can the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership minimise the harm from the United States–China trade war?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(11), pages 3148-3167, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lin, Kang & Tian, Kailan & Gao, Xiang & Zhao, Yu & Yang, Cuihong, 2024. "Responses of China's cross-border investors to domestic environmental regulations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    2. Francois, Joseph & Hoekman, Bernard & Manchin, Miriam & Santi, Filippo, 2022. "Pursuing Environmental and Social Objectives through Trade Agreements," CEPR Discussion Papers 17706, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Peterson, Sonja & Wanner, Joschka, 2022. "The impact of trade and trade policy on the environment and the climate: A review," Kiel Working Papers 2233, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Yuquan W. Zhang & Yong Geng & Bin Zhang & Shaohua Yang & David V. Izikowitz & Haitao Yin & Fei Wu & Haishan Yu & Huiwen Liu & Weiduo Zhou, 2023. "Examining industrial air pollution embodied in trade: implications of a hypothetical China-UK FTA," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(11), pages 13253-13279, November.
    5. Jia, Zhijie & Wu, Rongxin & Liu, Yu & Wen, Shiyan & Lin, Boqiang, 2024. "Can carbon tariffs based on domestic embedded carbon emissions reduce more carbon leakages?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    6. Lijun Li, 2023. "Big data visualisation in regional comprehensive economic partnership: a systematic review," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    7. Menghan Zhang & Suocheng Dong & Fujia Li & Shuangjie Xu & Kexin Guo & Qian Liu, 2022. "Spatial–Temporal Evolution and Improvement Measures of Embodied Carbon Emissions in Interprovincial Trade for Coal Energy Supply Bases: Case Study of Anhui, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-16, December.
    8. Nejati, Mehdi & Shah, Muhammad Ibrahim, 2023. "How does ICT trade shape environmental impacts across the north-south regions? Intra-regional and Inter-regional perspective from dynamic CGE model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PB).
    9. Zhang, Yu & Tian, Kailan & Li, Xiaomeng & Jiang, Xuemei & Yang, Cuihong, 2022. "From globalization to regionalization? Assessing its potential environmental and economic effects," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    10. Jeremiás Máté Balogh & Tamás Mizik, 2023. "Global Impacts of Climate Policy and Trade Agreements on Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-13, February.
    11. Wang, Zhen & Yan, Haoben & Gao, Xue & Liang, Qiaomei & Mi, Zhifu & Liu, Lancui, 2024. "Have consumption-based CO2 emissions in developed countries peaked?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zakaria Sorgho, 2016. "RTAs' Proliferation and Trade-diversion Effects: Evidence of the ‘Spaghetti Bowl’ Phenomenon," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(2), pages 285-300, February.
    2. Fugazza, Marco & Nicita, Alessandro, 2011. "Measuring preferential market access," MPRA Paper 38565, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. K.N. Harilal, 2012. "Regional Route to Multilateralism: Proliferation of PTAs among Developing Countries and WTO Negotiations," Millennial Asia, , vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, January.
    4. Ling, Zaili & Huang, Tao & Li, Jixiang & Zhou, Sheng & Lian, Lulu & Wang, Jinxiang & Zhao, Yuan & Mao, Xiaoxuan & Gao, Hong & Ma, Jianmin, 2019. "Sulfur dioxide pollution and energy justice in Northwestern China embodied in West-East Energy Transmission of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 547-560.
    5. Baldwin, Richard & Jaimovich, Dany, 2012. "Are Free Trade Agreements contagious?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 1-16.
    6. Sorgho, Zakaria, 2014. "RTAs’ Proliferation and Trade-diversion effects: Evidence of the “Spaghetti Bowl” Phenomenon," MPRA Paper 60503, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Koumtingué, Nelnan, 2010. "Proliferation of preferential trade agreements: an empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 68917, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Aug 2014.
    8. Chao Bao & Mutian Xu & Siao Sun, 2019. "China’s Land Uses in the Multi-Region Input–Output Framework," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-17, August.
    9. Feuerstein Switgard, 2013. "From the Zollverein to the Economics of Regionalism," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 233(3), pages 367-388, June.
    10. Liu, Yating & Fang, Delin & Chen, Bin, 2021. "Interregional spillover effect of PM2.5 emissions on Northeast China through the national supply chain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    11. Yang, Xue & Su, Bin, 2019. "Impacts of international export on global and regional carbon intensity," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    12. Anupa Sharma & Jason Grant & Kathryn Boys, 2021. "Truly Preferential Treatment? Reconsidering the Generalised System of (Trade) Preferences with Competing Suppliers," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 500-524, June.
    13. Zhang, Yu & Tian, Kailan & Li, Xiaomeng & Jiang, Xuemei & Yang, Cuihong, 2022. "From globalization to regionalization? Assessing its potential environmental and economic effects," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    14. Jiang, Lei & He, Shixiong & Zhong, Zhangqi & Zhou, Haifeng & He, Lingyun, 2019. "Revisiting environmental kuznets curve for carbon dioxide emissions: The role of trade," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 245-257.
    15. Sorgho, Zakaria, 2015. "RTAs' Proliferation and Trade-Diversion Effects: Evidence of the "Spaghetti Bowl" Phenomenon," Working Papers 206223, University of Laval, Center for Research on the Economics of the Environment, Agri-food, Transports and Energy (CREATE).
    16. Jose Jaime Baena-Rojas & Susana Herrero-Olarte, 2020. "From Preferential Trade Arrangements to Free Trade Agreements: One of the Downturns of Cooperation in International Relations?," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-17, August.
    17. K.N. Harilal, 2014. "Regional Cooperation for Whom? A Study of ASEAN–India FTA in the Context of Plantation/Tropical Products," Millennial Asia, , vol. 5(2), pages 137-155, October.
    18. Du, Huibin & Liu, Huiwen & Zhang, Zengkai, 2022. "The unequal exchange of air pollution and economic benefits embodied in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei's consumption," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    19. Huang, Rui & Lv, Guonian, 2021. "The climate economic effect of technology spillover," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    20. Jue Wang & Shi Wang & Hua Wang & Yan Song, 2022. "A Numerical Simulation Analysis Framework of Sustainable Regional Economic Cooperation: A Case Study of the New Silk Road Economic Belt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-18, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-28004-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.