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Can the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership minimise the harm from the United States–China trade war?

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  • Renuka Mahadevan
  • Anda Nugroho

Abstract

Using ex post tariff schedules for the first time, it was found that the global gains provided by the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) are not enough to overcome the negative impacts of the United States–China trade dispute. While trade tensions cause China's welfare loss to be more than twice as large as the United States, they provide some trade diversion to RCEP members. But of concern is if India successfully delays the conclusion of the RCEP even by a year, there will be a global loss of US$17.7 billion. The RCEP is also beneficial for the emerging economy of Vietnam and the high‐tariff‐imposing Korean economy. The results obtained here are, however, conservative as reduction in non‐tariff barriers and other positive spillover effects of trade liberalisation related to investment and productivity improvements due to competition or increased intra‐industry trade could not be accounted for.

Suggested Citation

  • Renuka Mahadevan & Anda Nugroho, 2019. "Can the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership minimise the harm from the United States–China trade war?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(11), pages 3148-3167, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:42:y:2019:i:11:p:3148-3167
    DOI: 10.1111/twec.12851
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    Cited by:

    1. Kyungbo Park & Hangook Kim & Jeonghwa Cha, 2023. "An Exploratory Study on the Development of a Crisis Index: Focusing on South Korea’s Petroleum Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-24, July.
    2. Marc Atkins & Christian Peitz, 2023. "The world's largest free trade agreement RCEP and its financial markets - A perspective on volatility and risk," Working Papers Dissertations 113, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
    3. Kailan Tian & Yu Zhang & Yuze Li & Xi Ming & Shangrong Jiang & Hongbo Duan & Cuihong Yang & Shouyang Wang, 2022. "Regional trade agreement burdens global carbon emissions mitigation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Jue Wang & Shi Wang & Hua Wang & Yan Song, 2022. "A Numerical Simulation Analysis Framework of Sustainable Regional Economic Cooperation: A Case Study of the New Silk Road Economic Belt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-18, May.
    5. Ambroziak Łukasz & Szczepaniak Iwona & Pawlak Karolina, 2022. "Prospects for the Development of Polish Agri-Food Exports to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Countries," Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej / Problems of Agricultural Economics, Sciendo, vol. 373(4), pages 46-74, December.
    6. Jie Wu & Jacob Wood & Xianhai Huang, 2021. "How does GVC reconstruction affect economic growth and employment? Analysis of USA–China decoupling," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 35(1), pages 67-81, May.
    7. Nugroho, Anda & Widyastutik, & Irawan, Tony & Amaliah, Syarifah, 2021. "Does the US–China trade war increase poverty in a developing country? A dynamic general equilibrium analysis for Indonesia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 279-290.
    8. Nantembelele, Fatuma Abdallah & Yilmaz, Mustafa K. & Ari, Ali, 2023. "The effects of a US-China trade war on Sub-Saharan Africa: Pro-active domestic policies make the difference," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 1296-1310.
    9. Ambroziak, Łukasz & Szczepaniak, Iwona & Pawlak, Karolina, 2022. "Prospects for the Development of Polish Agri- -Food Exports to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Countries," Problems of Agricultural Economics / Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej 329864, Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics - National Research Institute (IAFE-NRI).
    10. Zhang, Yu & Tian, Kailan & Li, Xiaomeng & Jiang, Xuemei & Yang, Cuihong, 2022. "From globalization to regionalization? Assessing its potential environmental and economic effects," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    11. He, Xi & Yang, Anton & Balistreri, Edward J. & Zhang, Wendong, 2021. "Agricultural Trade Impacts of RCEP: an Integrated Partial Equilibrium and General Equilibrium Assessment," Conference papers 333312, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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