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Hydrologic implications of vegetation response to elevated CO2 in climate projections

Author

Listed:
  • Yuting Yang

    (Australian National University
    Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science
    Tsinghua University)

  • Michael L. Roderick

    (Australian National University
    Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science
    Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes)

  • Shulei Zhang

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Tim R. McVicar

    (Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science
    CSIRO Land and Water, Black Mountain)

  • Randall J. Donohue

    (Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science
    CSIRO Land and Water, Black Mountain)

Abstract

Climate model projections using offline aridity and/or drought indices predict substantial terrestrial drying over the twenty-first century1–11. However, these same models also predict an increased runoff12–15. This contradiction has been linked to an absence of vegetation responses to an elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] in offline impact models12,14,16,17. Here we report a close and consistent relationship between changes in surface resistance (rs) and [CO2] across 16 CMIP5 models. Attributing evapotranspiration changes under non-water-limited conditions shows that an increase in evapotranspiration caused by a warming-induced vapour pressure deficit increase18 is almost entirely offset by a decrease in evapotranspiration caused by increased rs driven by rising [CO2]. This indicates that climate models do not actually project increased vegetation water use under an elevated [CO2], which counters the perception that ‘warming leads to drying’ in many previous studies1–11. Moreover, we show that the hydrologic information in CMIP5 models can be satisfactorily recovered using an offline hydrologic model that incorporates the [CO2] effect on rs in calculating potential evapotranspiration (EP). This offers an effective, physically-based yet relatively simple way to account for the vegetation response to elevated [CO2] in offline impact models.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuting Yang & Michael L. Roderick & Shulei Zhang & Tim R. McVicar & Randall J. Donohue, 2019. "Hydrologic implications of vegetation response to elevated CO2 in climate projections," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 44-48, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:9:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41558-018-0361-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0361-0
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mohammad Zare & Shahid Azam & David Sauchyn, 2022. "A Modified SWAT Model to Simulate Soil Water Content and Soil Temperature in Cold Regions: A Case Study of the South Saskatchewan River Basin in Canada," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-16, August.
    2. Shenghang Wang & Shen Tan & Jiaming Xu, 2023. "Evaluation and Implication of the Policies towards China’s Carbon Neutrality," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-15, April.
    3. Xingyun Liang & Defu Wang & Qing Ye & Jinmeng Zhang & Mengyun Liu & Hui Liu & Kailiang Yu & Yujie Wang & Enqing Hou & Buqing Zhong & Long Xu & Tong Lv & Shouzhang Peng & Haibo Lu & Pierre Sicard & Ale, 2023. "Stomatal responses of terrestrial plants to global change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Liangsheng Zhang & Haijiang Luo & Xuezhen Zhang, 2022. "Land-Greening Hotspot Changes in the Yangtze River Economic Belt during the Last Four Decades and Their Connections to Human Activities," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-17, April.
    5. Sergio M. Vicente‐Serrano & Tim R. McVicar & Diego G. Miralles & Yuting Yang & Miquel Tomas‐Burguera, 2020. "Unraveling the influence of atmospheric evaporative demand on drought and its response to climate change," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), March.
    6. Tian, Xin & Dong, Jianzhi & Jin, Shuangyan & He, Hai & Yin, Hao & Chen, Xi, 2023. "Climate change impacts on regional agricultural irrigation water use in semi-arid environments," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    7. Julien Boé, 2021. "The physiological effect of CO2 on the hydrological cycle in summer over Europe and land-atmosphere interactions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-20, July.
    8. Shan Jiang & Jian Zhou & Guojie Wang & Qigen Lin & Ziyan Chen & Yanjun Wang & Buda Su, 2022. "Cropland Exposed to Drought Is Overestimated without Considering the CO 2 Effect in the Arid Climatic Region of China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-21, June.
    9. Yusuke Satoh & Kei Yoshimura & Yadu Pokhrel & Hyungjun Kim & Hideo Shiogama & Tokuta Yokohata & Naota Hanasaki & Yoshihide Wada & Peter Burek & Edward Byers & Hannes Müller Schmied & Dieter Gerten & S, 2022. "The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    10. Yao, Yuxia & Liao, Xingliang & Xiao, Junlan & He, Qiulan & Shi, Weiyu, 2023. "The sensitivity of maize evapotranspiration to vapor pressure deficit and soil moisture with lagged effects under extreme drought in Southwest China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    11. Thibault Lemaitre-Basset & Ludovic Oudin & Guillaume Thirel, 2022. "Evapotranspiration in hydrological models under rising CO2: a jump into the unknown," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-19, June.
    12. Yao Zhang & Pierre Gentine & Xiangzhong Luo & Xu Lian & Yanlan Liu & Sha Zhou & Anna M. Michalak & Wu Sun & Joshua B. Fisher & Shilong Piao & Trevor F. Keenan, 2022. "Increasing sensitivity of dryland vegetation greenness to precipitation due to rising atmospheric CO2," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.

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