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A Novel Sensitivity Analysis Framework for Quantifying Permafrost Impacts on Runoff Variability in the Yangtze River Source Region

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  • Jiaxuan Chang

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China)

  • Xuefeng Sang

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China)

  • Yun Zhang

    (China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute, Beijing 100120, China)

  • Yangwen Jia

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China)

  • Junlin Qu

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China)

  • Yang Zheng

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China)

  • Haokai Ding

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China)

Abstract

In the context of global climate change, understanding cryosphere degradation and its impact on water resources in alpine regions is crucial for sustainable development. This study investigates the relationship between permafrost degradation and runoff variations in the Source Region of the Yangtze River (SRYR), a critical water tower for sustainable water supply in Asia. We propose a novel method for assessing permafrost sensitivity, which establishes the correlation between cryosphere changes and hydrological responses, contributing to sustainable water resource management. Our research quantifies key uncertainties in runoff change attribution, providing essential data for sustainable decision making. Results show that changes in watershed characteristics account for up to 20% of runoff variation, with permafrost degradation (−0.02 sensitivity) demonstrating a greater influence than NDVI variations. The findings offer critical insights for the development of sustainable adaptation strategies, particularly in maintaining ecosystem services and ensuring long-term water security under changing climate conditions. This study offers a scientific basis for climate-resilient water management policies in high-altitude regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiaxuan Chang & Xuefeng Sang & Yun Zhang & Yangwen Jia & Junlin Qu & Yang Zheng & Haokai Ding, 2025. "A Novel Sensitivity Analysis Framework for Quantifying Permafrost Impacts on Runoff Variability in the Yangtze River Source Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-21, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:4:p:1570-:d:1590953
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Yuting Yang & Michael L. Roderick & Shulei Zhang & Tim R. McVicar & Randall J. Donohue, 2019. "Hydrologic implications of vegetation response to elevated CO2 in climate projections," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 44-48, January.
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