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Cost-effectiveness of natural forest regeneration and plantations for climate mitigation

Author

Listed:
  • Jonah Busch

    (Conservation International)

  • Jacob J. Bukoski

    (Conservation International
    Oregon State University)

  • Susan C. Cook-Patton

    (The Nature Conservancy)

  • Bronson Griscom

    (Conservation International)

  • David Kaczan

    (University of South Australia
    The World Bank)

  • Matthew D. Potts

    (University of California
    Carbon Direct Inc.)

  • Yuanyuan Yi

    (Peking University
    University of Gothenburg)

  • Jeffrey R. Vincent

    (Duke University)

Abstract

Mitigating climate change cost-effectively requires identifying least-cost-per-ton GHG abatement methods. Here, we estimate and map GHG abatement cost (US$ per tCO2) for two common reforestation methods: natural regeneration and plantations. We do so by producing and integrating new maps of implementation costs and opportunity costs of reforestation, likely plantation genus and carbon accumulation by means of natural regeneration and plantations, accounting for storage in harvested wood products. We find natural regeneration (46%) and plantations (54%) would each have lower abatement cost across about half the area considered suitable for reforestation of 138 low- and middle-income countries. Using the more cost-effective method at each location, the 30 year, time-discounted abatement potential of reforestation below US$50 per tCO2 is 31.4 GtCO2 (24.2–34.3 GtCO2 below US$20–100 per tCO2)—44% more than natural regeneration alone or 39% more than plantations alone. We find that reforestation offers 10.3 (2.8) times more abatement below US$20 per tCO2 (US$50 per tCO2) than the most recent IPCC estimate.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonah Busch & Jacob J. Bukoski & Susan C. Cook-Patton & Bronson Griscom & David Kaczan & Matthew D. Potts & Yuanyuan Yi & Jeffrey R. Vincent, 2024. "Cost-effectiveness of natural forest regeneration and plantations for climate mitigation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(9), pages 996-1002, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:14:y:2024:i:9:d:10.1038_s41558-024-02068-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02068-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J. Mason Earles & Sonia Yeh & Kenneth E. Skog, 2012. "Timing of carbon emissions from global forest clearance," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(9), pages 682-685, September.
    2. Kevin Rennert & Frank Errickson & Brian C. Prest & Lisa Rennels & Richard G. Newell & William Pizer & Cora Kingdon & Jordan Wingenroth & Roger Cooke & Bryan Parthum & David Smith & Kevin Cromar & Dela, 2022. "Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2," Nature, Nature, vol. 610(7933), pages 687-692, October.
    3. Abhijeet Mishra & Florian Humpenöder & Galina Churkina & Christopher P. O. Reyer & Felicitas Beier & Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Hans Joachim Schellnhuber & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Alexander Popp, 2022. "Land use change and carbon emissions of a transformation to timber cities," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
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