Leading indicators of sovereign defaults in middle- and low-income countries: the role of foreign exchange reserve ratios in times of pandemic
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2010. "The emerging global financial architecture: Tracing and evaluating new patterns of the trilemma configuration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 615-641, June.
- Mr. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 2003/221, International Monetary Fund.
- Mr. Romain Ranciere & Mr. Olivier D Jeanne, 2006. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Countries: Formulas and Applications," IMF Working Papers 2006/229, International Monetary Fund.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- Juan J. Cruces & Christoph Trebesch, 2013.
"Sovereign Defaults: The Price of Haircuts,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 85-117, July.
- Juan J. Cruces & Christoph Trebesch, 2011. "Sovereign Defaults: The Price of Haircuts," CESifo Working Paper Series 3604, CESifo.
- Cruces, Juan J. & Trebesch, Christoph, 2013. "Sovereign defaults: The price of haircuts," Munich Reprints in Economics 20036, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Federico Sturzenegger & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2007. "Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262195534, December.
- Carmen M. Reinhart, 2022.
"From Health Crisis to Financial Distress,"
IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(1), pages 4-31, March.
- Reinhart,Carmen M., 2021. "From Health Crisis to Financial Distress," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9616, The World Bank.
- Mr. Manuel De la Rocha & Mr. Roberto Perrelli & Mr. Christian B. Mulder, 2002. "The Role of Corporate, Legal and Macroeconomic Balance Sheet Indicators in Crisis Detection and Prevention," IMF Working Papers 2002/059, International Monetary Fund.
- Takaya Saito & Marc Rehmsmeier, 2015. "The Precision-Recall Plot Is More Informative than the ROC Plot When Evaluating Binary Classifiers on Imbalanced Datasets," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-21, March.
- Roberto Savona & Marika Vezzoli, 2015.
"Fitting and Forecasting Sovereign Defaults using Multiple Risk Signals,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(1), pages 66-92, February.
- Roberto Savona & Marika Vezzoli, 2012. "Fitting and Forecasting Sovereign Defaults Using Multiple Risk Signals," Working Papers 2012_26, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson & Robert Barro & José Ursúa, 2013.
"Crises and Recoveries in an Empirical Model of Consumption Disasters,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 35-74, July.
- Jose Ursua & Jon Steinsson & Emi Nakamura & Robert Barro, 2008. "Crises and Recoveries in an Empirical Model of Consumption Disasters," 2008 Meeting Papers 1089, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson & Robert Barro & José Ursúa, 2010. "Crises and Recoveries in an Empirical Model of Consumption Disasters," NBER Working Papers 15920, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Kalotychou, Elena, 2007. "Optimal design of early warning systems for sovereign debt crises," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 85-100.
- Yavuz Arslan & Carlos Cantú, 2019. "The size of foreign exchange reserves," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Reserve management and FX intervention, volume 104, pages 1-23, Bank for International Settlements.
- Hong Kong Monetary Authority, 2020. "Foreign participation in the local currency bond markets of emerging market economies: good or bad for market resilience and financial stability?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial market development, monetary policy and financial stability in emerging market economies, volume 113, pages 133-140, Bank for International Settlements.
- Tjur, Tue, 2009. "Coefficients of Determination in Logistic Regression Models—A New Proposal: The Coefficient of Discrimination," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 63(4), pages 366-372.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Tamás Kristóf, 2021. "Sovereign Default Forecasting in the Era of the COVID-19 Crisis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-24, October.
- Arazmuradov, Annageldy, 2016. "Assessing sovereign debt default by efficiency," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 100-113.
- Francesca Caselli & Matilde Faralli & Paolo Manasse & Ugo Panizza, 2021.
"On the Benefits of Repaying,"
IMF Working Papers
2021/233, International Monetary Fund.
- Panizza, Ugo & Caselli, Francesca & Faralli, Matilde & Manasse, Paolo, 2021. "On the Benefits of Repaying," CEPR Discussion Papers 16539, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Francesca Caselli & Matilde Faralli & Paolo Manasse & Ugo Panizza, 2021. "On the Benefits of Repaying," Working Papers wp1163, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
- Francesca Caselli & Matilde Faralli & Paolo Manasse & Ugo Panizza, 2021. "On the Benefits of Repaying," IHEID Working Papers 18-2021, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
- Barbara Jarmulska, 2022.
"Random forest versus logit models: Which offers better early warning of fiscal stress?,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 455-490, April.
- Jarmulska, Barbara, 2020. "Random forest versus logit models: which offers better early warning of fiscal stress?," Working Paper Series 2408, European Central Bank.
- Christoph A. Schaltegger & Martin Weder, 2015.
"Fiscal Adjustments and the Probability of Sovereign Default,"
Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(1), pages 81-110, February.
- Schaltegger, Christoph & Weder, Martin, 2013. "Fiscal Adjustments and the Probability of Sovereign Default," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79979, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Christoph A. Schaltegger & Martin Weder, 2013. "Fiscal Adjustments and the Probability of Sovereign Default," CREMA Working Paper Series 2013-06, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
- Moreno Badia, Marialuz & Medas, Paulo & Gupta, Pranav & Xiang, Yuan, 2022.
"Debt is not free,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
- Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia & Mr. Paulo A Medas & Pranav Gupta & Yuan Xiang, 2020. "Debt Is Not Free," IMF Working Papers 2020/001, International Monetary Fund.
- Rho, Caterina & Saenz, Manrique, 2021. "Financial stress and the probability of sovereign default," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
- Gould, David M. & Melecky, Martin & Panterov, Georgi, 2016. "Finance, growth and shared prosperity: Beyond credit deepening," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 737-758.
- Roberto Savona & Marika Vezzoli, 2015.
"Fitting and Forecasting Sovereign Defaults using Multiple Risk Signals,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(1), pages 66-92, February.
- Roberto Savona & Marika Vezzoli, 2012. "Fitting and Forecasting Sovereign Defaults Using Multiple Risk Signals," Working Papers 2012_26, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Roberto Savona & Marika Vezzoli, 2012. "Multidimensional Distance‐To‐Collapse Point And Sovereign Default Prediction," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(4), pages 205-228, October.
- Sondermann, David & Zorell, Nico, 2019. "A macroeconomic vulnerability model for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2306, European Central Bank.
- Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013.
"Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications,"
CAMA Working Papers
2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types, and Implications," CEPR Discussion Papers 9329, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mr. Stijn Claessens & Mr. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications," IMF Working Papers 2013/028, International Monetary Fund.
- Sebastian Horn & Carmen M. Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2022.
"Hidden Defaults,"
AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 112, pages 531-535, May.
- Horn, Sebastian & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Trebesch, Christoph, 2022. "Hidden defaults," Kiel Working Papers 2208, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Horn,Sebastian Andreas & Reinhart,Carmen M. & Trebesch,Christoph, 2022. "Hidden Defaults," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9925, The World Bank.
- Carré, Sylvain & Cohen, Daniel & Villemot, Sébastien, 2019. "The sources of sovereign risk: a calibration based on Lévy stochastic processes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 31-43.
- Coimbra, Nuno, 2020.
"Sovereigns at risk: A dynamic model of sovereign debt and banking leverage,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
- Nuno Coimbra, 2019. "Sovereigns at Risk: A Dynamic Model of Sovereign Debt and Banking Leverage," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nuno Coimbra, 2020. "Sovereigns at risk: A dynamic model of sovereign debt and banking leverage," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-02491806, HAL.
- Nuno Coimbra, 2020. "Sovereigns at risk: A dynamic model of sovereign debt and banking leverage," Post-Print halshs-02491806, HAL.
- Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2024.
"The Sovereign Debt Crisis in Sri Lanka: Anatomy and Policy Options,"
Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 23(2), pages 1-28, Summer.
- Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2023. "The Sovereign Debt Crisis in Sri Lanka: Anatomy and Policy Options," Departmental Working Papers 2023-12, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
- Daniel Cohen & Sébastien Villemot, 2012.
"The sovereign default puzzle: Modelling issues and lessons for Europe,"
Working Papers
halshs-00692038, HAL.
- Daniel Cohen & Sébastien Villemot, 2012. "The sovereign default puzzle: Modelling issues and lessons for Europe," PSE Working Papers halshs-00692038, HAL.
- Cohen, Daniel & Villemot, Sébastien, 2012. "The Sovereign Default Puzzle: Modelling Issues and Lessons for Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 8971, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Carlo de Bassa Scheresberg, Francesco Passarelli, 2011. "Strategic Sovereign Defaults under International Sanctions," ISLA Working Papers 42, ISLA, Centre for research on Latin American Studies and Transition Economies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
- Salvatore Dell’Erba & Emanuele Baldacci & Tigran Poghosyan, 2013.
"Spatial spillovers in emerging market spreads,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 735-756, October.
- Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci & Mr. Tigran Poghosyan, 2011. "Spatial Spillovers in Emerging Market Spreads," IMF Working Papers 2011/221, International Monetary Fund.
- Jean-Marc Fournier & Manuel Bétin, 2018. "Sovereign defaults: Evidence on the importance of government effectiveness," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1494, OECD Publishing.
More about this item
Keywords
debt crisis; early warning system; reserve ratios; sovereign ratings; COVID-19 defaults;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
- G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-22-00473. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.