IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/fininn/v7y2021i1d10.1186_s40854-021-00270-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Signals in equity-based crowdfunding and risk of failure

Author

Listed:
  • Felix Reichenbach

    (Technische Universität Berlin)

  • Martin Walther

    (Technische Universität Berlin)

Abstract

This study investigates signal validity in equity-based crowdfunding by examining whether signals that increase crowd participation are associated with higher post-offering success. Post-offering success is measured as the probability of survival. We use a hand-collected data set of 88 campaigns with over 64,000 investments and 742 updates from a well-established and leading German equity-based crowdfunding platform, Companisto. We find that indicating that the chief executive officer holds a university degree and a higher number of business-related updates are associated with a lower risk of failure, which is in line with recent research on offering success. The number of updates on external certification, promotions, and the team is associated with a higher risk of failure. In contrast to recent findings on offering success, we find that the equity share offered is positively related to post-offering success, whereas a high number of large investments or updates on campaign development are accompanied by a higher probability of failure. Our results provide guidance for entrepreneurs and investors regarding which signals are worth sending or using. Furthermore, these results suggest that investors are partly using wrong signals and challenge the rationality and wisdom of the crowd.

Suggested Citation

  • Felix Reichenbach & Martin Walther, 2021. "Signals in equity-based crowdfunding and risk of failure," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-30, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:fininn:v:7:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-021-00270-0
    DOI: 10.1186/s40854-021-00270-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1186/s40854-021-00270-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1186/s40854-021-00270-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:ces:ifodic:v:14:y:2016:i:2:p:19235736 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Marco Bade & Martin Walther, 2021. "Local preferences and the allocation of attention in equity-based crowdfunding," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 15(8), pages 2501-2533, November.
    3. Michael Spence, 2002. "Signaling in Retrospect and the Informational Structure of Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 434-459, June.
    4. Ajay Agrawal & Christian Catalini & Avi Goldfarb, 2015. "Crowdfunding: Geography, Social Networks, and the Timing of Investment Decisions," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 253-274, June.
    5. Douglas Cumming & Michele Meoli & Silvio Vismara, 2021. "Does equity crowdfunding democratize entrepreneurial finance?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 533-552, February.
    6. Manju Puri & Rebecca Zarutskie, 2012. "On the Life Cycle Dynamics of Venture-Capital- and Non-Venture-Capital-Financed Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(6), pages 2247-2293, December.
    7. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    8. Lars Hornuf & Matthias Schmitt, 2016. "Success and Failure in Equity Crowdfunding," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(2), pages 16-22, 07.
    9. Robert E. Hall & Susan E. Woodward, 2010. "The Burden of the Nondiversifiable Risk of Entrepreneurship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 1163-1194, June.
    10. Gerrit K.C. Ahlers & Douglas Cumming & Christina Günther & Denis Schweizer, 2015. "Signaling in Equity Crowdfunding," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 39(4), pages 955-980, July.
    11. Magdalena Cholakova & Bart Clarysse, 2015. "Does the Possibility to Make Equity Investments in Crowdfunding Projects Crowd Out Reward–Based Investments?," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 39(1), pages 145-172, January.
    12. Robin P. G. Tech, 2018. "Financing High-Tech Startups," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-66155-1, July.
    13. Lars Hornuf & Matthias Schmitt, 2016. "Success and Failure in Equity Crowdfunding," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(02), pages 16-22, July.
    14. George A. Akerlof, 1970. "The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500.
    15. Flavio Pichler & Ilaria Tezza, 2016. "Crowdfunding as a New Phenomenon: Origins, Features and Literature Review," Palgrave Macmillan Studies in Banking and Financial Institutions, in: Roberto Bottiglia & Flavio Pichler (ed.), Crowdfunding for SMEs, chapter 2, pages 5-43, Palgrave Macmillan.
    16. Lars Hornuf & Armin Schwienbacher, 2017. "Should securities regulation promote equity crowdfunding?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 579-593, October.
    17. Artie W. Ng & Douglas Macbeth & Leslie S. C. Yip, 2017. "Exploring performance drivers for technology-based ventures from early stage to expansion: perspectives of venture capitalists," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 335-359, October.
    18. Martin Walther & Marco Bade, 2020. "Observational learning and willingness to pay in equity crowdfunding," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 13(2), pages 639-661, July.
    19. Evila Piva & Cristina Rossi-Lamastra, 2018. "Human capital signals and entrepreneurs’ success in equity crowdfunding," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 667-686, October.
    20. Ethan Mollick & Ramana Nanda, 2016. "Wisdom or Madness? Comparing Crowds with Expert Evaluation in Funding the Arts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(6), pages 1533-1553, June.
    21. Douglas Cumming & Lars Hornuf (ed.), 2018. "The Economics of Crowdfunding," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-66119-3, July.
    22. Leland, Hayne E & Pyle, David H, 1977. "Informational Asymmetries, Financial Structure, and Financial Intermediation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 371-387, May.
    23. Signori, Andrea & Vismara, Silvio, 2018. "Does success bring success? The post-offering lives of equity-crowdfunded firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 575-591.
    24. Morshadul Hasan & Thi Le & Ariful Hoque, 2021. "How does financial literacy impact on inclusive finance?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-23, December.
    25. McFadden, Daniel, 1987. "Regression-based specification tests for the multinomial logit model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 63-82.
    26. Joern H. Block & Alexander Groh & Lars Hornuf & Tom Vanacker & Silvio Vismara, 0. "The entrepreneurial finance markets of the future: a comparison of crowdfunding and initial coin offerings," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-18.
    27. Vincenzo Capizzi & Emanuele Maria Carluccio, 2016. "Competitive Frontiers in Equity Crowdfunding: The Role of Venture Capitalists and Business Angels in the Early-Stage Financing Industry," Palgrave Macmillan Studies in Banking and Financial Institutions, in: Roberto Bottiglia & Flavio Pichler (ed.), Crowdfunding for SMEs, chapter 6, pages 117-157, Palgrave Macmillan.
    28. Douglas Cumming & Michele Meoli & Silvio Vismara, 0. "Does equity crowdfunding democratize entrepreneurial finance?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-20.
    29. Hornuf, Lars & Schwienbacher, Armin, 2018. "Market mechanisms and funding dynamics in equity crowdfunding," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 556-574.
    30. Haomin Wang & Gang Kou & Yi Peng, 2021. "Multi-class misclassification cost matrix for credit ratings in peer-to-peer lending," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 72(4), pages 923-934, March.
    31. Gregor Dorfleitner & Lars Hornuf & Martina Weber, 2018. "Dynamics of investor communication in equity crowdfunding," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 28(4), pages 523-540, November.
    32. Alice Rossi & Silvio Vismara & Michele Meoli, 2019. "Voting rights delivery in investment-based crowdfunding: a cross-platform analysis," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 46(2), pages 251-281, June.
    33. Cumming, Douglas & Meoli, Michele & Vismara, Silvio, 2019. "Investors’ choices between cash and voting rights: Evidence from dual-class equity crowdfunding," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(8), pages 1-1.
    34. Alice Rossi & Silvio Vismara, 2018. "What do crowdfunding platforms do? A comparison between investment-based platforms in Europe," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(1), pages 93-118, March.
    35. Tjur, Tue, 2009. "Coefficients of Determination in Logistic Regression Models—A New Proposal: The Coefficient of Discrimination," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 63(4), pages 366-372.
    36. Silvio Vismara, 2016. "Equity retention and social network theory in equity crowdfunding," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 579-590, April.
    37. Michael Spence, 1973. "Job Market Signaling," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 87(3), pages 355-374.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Elena Borin & Giulia Fantini, 2023. "Participatory Governance as a Success Factor in Equity Crowdfunding Campaigns for Cultural Heritage," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-16, March.
    2. Zhang, Ye & Johan, Sofia & Fu, Kun & Hughes, Mathew & Scholes, Louise & Liu, Jiajia, 2024. "The effect of lead investor’s human capital on funding performance: The moderating role of investment ambition," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    3. Huiling Zhang & Yaokuang Li & Juan Wu & Li Ling, 2022. "How do the network structures of lead investors affect the following of distant strangers? Evidence from Chinese equity crowdfunding," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(8), pages 3516-3533, December.
    4. Lenny Phulong Mamaro & Athenia Bongani Sibindi, 2023. "The Drivers of Successful Crowdfunding Projects in Africa during the COVID-19 Pandemic," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-17, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Borello, Giuliana & De Crescenzo, Veronica & Pichler, Flavio, 2019. "Factors for success in European crowdinvesting," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    2. Saul Estrin & Susanna Khavul & Mike Wright, 2022. "Soft and hard information in equity crowdfunding: network effects in the digitalization of entrepreneurial finance," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1761-1781, April.
    3. Butticè, Vincenzo & Di Pietro, Francesca & Tenca, Francesca, 2020. "Is equity crowdfunding always good? Deal structure and the attraction of venture capital investors," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Daniel Blaseg & Douglas Cumming & Michael Koetter, 2021. "Equity Crowdfunding: High-Quality or Low-Quality Entrepreneurs?," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 45(3), pages 505-530, May.
    5. Francesca Pietro, 2021. "The rationale for listing on equity crowdfunding: actual and expected benefits for companies," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 48(4), pages 527-549, December.
    6. Cristina Martínez-Gómez & Francisca Jiménez-Jiménez & M. Virtudes Alba-Fernández, 2020. "Determinants of Overfunding in Equity Crowdfunding: An Empirical Study in the UK and Spain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-29, December.
    7. Derek Eldridge & Tahir M. Nisar & Mariateresa Torchia, 2021. "What impact does equity crowdfunding have on SME innovation and growth? An empirical study," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 105-120, January.
    8. Hornuf, Lars & Schilling, Tobias & Schwienbacher, Armin, 2022. "The relevance of investor rights in crowdinvesting," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. Aleksandrina Ralcheva & Peter Roosenboom, 2020. "Forecasting success in equity crowdfunding," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 39-56, June.
    10. Vincenzo Butticè & Silvio Vismara, 2022. "Inclusive digital finance: the industry of equity crowdfunding," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1224-1241, August.
    11. Coakley, Jerry & Lazos, Aristogenis & Liñares-Zegarra, José M., 2022. "Seasoned equity crowdfunded offerings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    12. Douglas Cumming & Lars Hornuf & Moein Karami & Denis Schweizer, 2023. "Disentangling Crowdfunding from Fraudfunding," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 182(4), pages 1103-1128, February.
    13. Goethner, Maximilian & Hornuf, Lars & Regner, Tobias, 2021. "Protecting investors in equity crowdfunding: An empirical analysis of the small investor protection act," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    14. Lars Hornuf & Matthias Schmitt & Eliza Stenzhorn, 2017. "Equity Crowdfunding in Germany and the UK: Follow-up Funding and Firm Failure," CESifo Working Paper Series 6642, CESifo.
    15. Michael E. Cummings & Hans Rawhouser & Silvio Vismara & Erin L. Hamilton, 2020. "An equity crowdfunding research agenda: evidence from stakeholder participation in the rulemaking process," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 907-932, April.
    16. Simon Kleinert & Christine Volkmann & Marc Grünhagen, 2020. "Third-party signals in equity crowdfunding: the role of prior financing," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 341-365, January.
    17. Joern H. Block & Alexander Groh & Lars Hornuf & Tom Vanacker & Silvio Vismara, 2021. "The entrepreneurial finance markets of the future: a comparison of crowdfunding and initial coin offerings," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 865-882, August.
    18. Walthoff-Borm, Xavier & Schwienbacher, Armin & Vanacker, Tom, 2018. "Equity crowdfunding: First resort or last resort?," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 513-533.
    19. Aurélien Petit & Peter Wirtz, 2022. "Experts in the crowd and their influence on herding in reward-based crowdfunding of cultural projects," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 419-449, January.
    20. Kourosh Shafi, 2021. "Investors’ evaluation criteria in equity crowdfunding," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 3-37, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equity-based crowdfunding; Post-offering success; Startup failure; Signaling; Startups; Updates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship
    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:fininn:v:7:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-021-00270-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.