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Increased economic drought impacts in Europe with anthropogenic warming

Author

Listed:
  • Gustavo Naumann

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre)

  • Carmelo Cammalleri

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre)

  • Lorenzo Mentaschi

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre)

  • Luc Feyen

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre)

Abstract

While climate change will alter the distribution of water in time and space, quantifications of drought risk under global warming remain uncertain. Here, we show that in Europe, drought damages could strongly increase with global warming and cause a regional imbalance in future drought impacts. In the absence of climate action (4 °C in 2100 and no adaptation), annual drought losses in the European Union and United Kingdom combined are projected to rise to more than €65 billion per year compared with €9 billion per year currently, or two times larger when expressed relative to the size of the economy. Drought losses show the strongest rise in southern and western parts of Europe, where drought conditions at 4 °C could reduce regional agriculture economic output by 10%. With high warming, drought impacts will become a fraction of current impacts in northern and northeastern regions. Keeping global warming well below 2 °C would avoid most impacts in affected regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustavo Naumann & Carmelo Cammalleri & Lorenzo Mentaschi & Luc Feyen, 2021. "Increased economic drought impacts in Europe with anthropogenic warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(6), pages 485-491, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:6:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01044-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01044-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Zulfiqar Ali & Sadia Qamar & Nasrulla Khan & Muhammad Faisal & Saad Sh. Sammen, 2023. "A New Regional Drought Index under X-bar Chart Based Weighting Scheme – The Quality Boosted Regional Drought Index (QBRDI)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(5), pages 1895-1911, March.
    2. Sheunesu Ruwanza & Gladman Thondhlana & Menelisi Falayi, 2022. "Research Progress and Conceptual Insights on Drought Impacts and Responses among Smallholder Farmers in South Africa: A Review," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-16, January.
    3. Xu, Zhenheng & Sun, Hao & Zhang, Tian & Xu, Huanyu & Wu, Dan & Gao, JinHua, 2023. "Evaluating established deep learning methods in constructing integrated remote sensing drought index: A case study in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    4. Tobias Dalhaus & Linda Steinhübel & Bernhard Dalheimer & Liesbeth Colen, 2024. "The future of research on sustainable food systems: Building an early‐career network of agricultural economists in Europe," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 319-324, April.
    5. Holtmann, Anne & Huth, Andreas & Bohn, Friedrich & Fischer, Rico, 2024. "Assessing the impact of multi-year droughts on German forests in the context of increased tree mortality," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 492(C).
    6. Arthur Charpentier & Molly James & Hani Ali, 2021. "Predicting Drought and Subsidence Risks in France," Papers 2107.07668, arXiv.org.
    7. Romy Carmen Brockhoff & Robbert Biesbroek & Bregje Bolt, 2022. "Drought Governance in Transition: a Case Study of the Meuse River Basin in the Netherlands," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(8), pages 2623-2638, June.
    8. Zhang, Q. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Wang, H. & Li, Y.F. & Shen, Z.Y., 2024. "Multivariate time series convolutional neural networks for long-term agricultural drought prediction under global warming," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).

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