IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dem/wpaper/wp-2023-019.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Socio-behavioral factors contributing to recent mortality trends in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Samuel H. Preston
  • Yana C. Vierboom

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Mikko Myrskylä

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

Abstract

We investigate the contribution of socio-behavioral factors to changes in US adult mortality over the period 1997-2019, using National Health Interview Surveys (NHIS) for years 1997-2018 linked to death records through 2019. The variables studied include alcohol consumption, cigarette smoking, health insurance coverage, educational attainment, mental distress, obesity, and race/ethnicity. We evaluate the contribution of each socio-behavioral variable to mortality change by estimating the mortality risks associated with each variable in a hazards model and applying the risks to changes in the variable’s distribution. We find that reductions in cigarette smoking and increases in educational attainment are the largest contributors to recent mortality improvements, accounting between them for 67% of mortality improvements. In a secondary analysis, we compare two subperiods to investigate whether the variables can account for a widely-observed slowdown in the rate of mortality reduction that occurred within the period of study. Rising levels of psychological distress, combined with very high risks associated with distress, were responsible for 13% of the slowdown. However, most of the slowdown remains unaccounted for.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel H. Preston & Yana C. Vierboom & Mikko Myrskylä, 2023. "Socio-behavioral factors contributing to recent mortality trends in the United States," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2023-019, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-019
    DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-019.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-019?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angus Deaton, 2022. "The great divide: education, despair, and death," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 161-168, October.
    2. Keyes, C.L.M. & Simoes, E.J., 2012. "To flourish or not: Positive mental health and all-cause mortality," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 102(11), pages 2164-2172.
    3. Wilper, A.P. & Woolhandler, S. & Lasser, K.E. & McCormick, D. & Bor, D.H. & Himmelstein, D.U., 2009. "Health insurance and mortality in US adults," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 99(12), pages 2289-2295.
    4. Nathan Keyfitz, 1977. "What difference would it make if cancer were eradicated? An examination of the taeuber paradox," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 14(4), pages 411-418, November.
    5. Christopher J. Ruhm, 2018. "Deaths of Despair or Drug Problems?," NBER Working Papers 24188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Neil K. Mehta & Leah R. Abrams & Mikko Myrskylä, 2020. "US life expectancy stalls due to cardiovascular disease, not drug deaths," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(13), pages 6998-7000, March.
    7. Powers, Daniel A. & Yun, Myeong-Su, 2009. "Multivariate Decomposition for Hazard Rate Models," IZA Discussion Papers 3971, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. repec:nas:journl:v:115:y:2018:p:957-961 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Richard G. Rogers & Patrick M. Krueger & Richard Miech & Elizabeth M. Lawrence, 2013. "Lifetime abstainers and mortality risk in the United States," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 11(1), pages 165-183.
    10. repec:nas:journl:v:115:y:2018:p:7290-7295 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Samuel Preston & Yana Vierboom & Mikko Myrskylä, 2024. "Socio-behavioral factors contributing to recent mortality trends in the United States," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 51(7), pages 191-214.
    2. Oscar E Fernandez & Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez, 2022. "Life span inequality as a function of the moments of the deaths distribution: Connections and insights," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(1), pages 1-17, January.
    3. Antonella Biscione & Dorothée Boccanfuso & Raul Caruso & Annunziata Felice, 2022. "The innovation gender gap in transition countries," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 39(2), pages 493-516, July.
    4. Duncan Gillespie & Meredith Trotter & Shripad Tuljapurkar, 2014. "Divergence in Age Patterns of Mortality Change Drives International Divergence in Lifespan Inequality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(3), pages 1003-1017, June.
    5. Haan, Peter & Hammerschmid, Anna & Schmieder, Julia, 2019. "Mortality in midlife for subgroups in Germany," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 14.
    6. Ilaria Natali & Mathias Dewatripont & Victor Ginsburgh & Michel Goldman & Patrick Legros, 2023. "Prescription opioids and economic hardship in France," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 24(9), pages 1473-1504, December.
    7. Amy Finkelstein & Matthew Gentzkow & Dean Li & Heidi L. Williams, 2022. "What Drives Risky Prescription Opioid Use? Evidence from Migration," NBER Working Papers 30471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Gihleb, Rania & Giuntella, Osea & Zhang, Ning, 2020. "Prescription drug monitoring programs and neonatal outcomes," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    9. Jeong, Soyun & Fox, Ashley M., 2023. "Enhanced unemployment benefits, mental health, and substance use among low-income households during the COVID-19 pandemic," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    10. Woojin Chung & Monica Das Gupta, 2007. "The Decline of Son Preference in South Korea: The Roles of Development and Public Policy," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 33(4), pages 757-783, December.
    11. Bhashkar Mazumder, 2023. "The Effects of Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs on Labor Market Activity and Credit Outcomes," Working Paper Series WP 2023-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    12. Susan L. Averett & Julie K. Smith & Yang Wang, 2019. "Medicaid expansion and opioid deaths," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(12), pages 1491-1496, December.
    13. Qiu, Yun & Liu, Yunning & Shi, Wei & Zhou, Maigeng, 2024. "The impact of ozone pollution on mortality: Evidence from China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    14. Jennifer S. Mascaro & Amanda Wallace & Brooke Hyman & Carla Haack & Cherie C. Hill & Miranda A. Moore & Maha B. Lund & Eric J. Nehl & Sharon H. Bergquist & Steve W. Cole, 2022. "Flourishing in Healthcare Trainees: Psychological Well-Being and the Conserved Transcriptional Response to Adversity," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-18, February.
    15. Chambers, Christopher P. & Ye, Siming, 2024. "Haves and have-nots: A theory of economic sufficientarianism," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    16. Aburto, José Manuel & Basellini, Ugofilippo & Baudisch, Annette & Villavicencio, Francisco, 2022. "Drewnowski’s index to measure lifespan variation: Revisiting the Gini coefficient of the life table," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 1-10.
    17. John Bound & Arline T. Geronimus & Timothy A. Waidmann & Javier M. Rodriguez, 2018. "Local Economic Hardship and Its Role in Life Expectancy Trends," Working Papers wp389, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    18. Michael A McClurkin & Leah Rae Yingling & Colby Ayers & Rebecca Cooper-McCann & Visakha Suresh & Ann Nothwehr & Debbie S Barrington & Tiffany M Powell-Wiley, 2015. "Health Insurance Status as a Barrier to Ideal Cardiovascular Health for U.S. Adults: Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES)," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(11), pages 1-14, November.
    19. Mateus Dias & Luiz Felipe Fontes, 2024. "The Effects of a Large-Scale Mental Health Reform: Evidence from Brazil," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 257-289, August.
    20. Aliprantis, Dionissi & Fee, Kyle & Schweitzer, Mark E., 2023. "Opioids and the labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Wilhelm (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.