IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/28395.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Time Series Estimates of the Italian Consumer Confidence Indicator

Author

Listed:
  • Paradiso, Antonio
  • Rao, B. Bhaskara
  • Margani, Patrizia

Abstract

This work shows that Italian consumer confidence indicator (CCI) is non-stationary and, therefore, can be estimated with the time series methods. It is found that a long-run relationship exists between CCI, short-term interest rate, industrial production index and the difference between perceived and measured inflation. The use of time series methods to estimate CCI for Italy is a novelty in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Paradiso, Antonio & Rao, B. Bhaskara & Margani, Patrizia, 2011. "Time Series Estimates of the Italian Consumer Confidence Indicator," MPRA Paper 28395, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28395
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/28395/1/MPRA_paper_28395.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Park, Joon Y, 1992. "Canonical Cointegrating Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 119-143, January.
    2. Saikkonen, Pentti & Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2000. "Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 451-464, October.
    3. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    4. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
    5. Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2000. "Testing For The Cointegrating Rank Of A Var Process With An Intercept," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 373-406, June.
    6. Marco Malgarini & Patrizia Margani, 2007. "Psychology, consumer sentiment and household expenditures," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(13), pages 1719-1729.
    7. Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2005. "Le famiglie italiane e l'introduzione dell'euro: storia di uno shock annunciato," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 201-226.
    8. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    9. Christian Dreger & Konstantin Arkadievich Kholodilin, 2013. "Forecasting Private Consumption by Consumer Surveys," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 10-18, January.
    10. Praet, Peter & Vuchelen, Jef, 1989. "The contribution of consumer confidence indexes in forecasting the effects of oil prices on private consumption," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 393-397.
    11. Dion, David Pascal, 2006. "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Spending? The Euro Area Case," MPRA Paper 911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marcin Olkiewicz, 2022. "The Impact of Economic Indicators on the Evolution of Business Confidence during the COVID-19 Pandemic Period," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-17, April.
    2. Gagea Mariana, 2012. "The Contribution Of Business Confidence Indicators In Short-Term Forecasting Of Economic Development," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 617-623, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eiji Kurozumi & Yoichi Arai, 2007. "Efficient estimation and inference in cointegrating regressions with structural change," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 545-575, July.
    2. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    3. repec:zbw:rwirep:0171 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Bosupeng, Mpho, 2016. "The Effects of Chinese Interest Rates and Inflation: A Decomposition of The Fisher Effect," MPRA Paper 78160, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    5. Ng, Serena & Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Estimation and inference in nearly unbalanced nearly cointegrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 53-81, July.
    6. Paradiso, Antonio & Kumar, Saten & Margani, Patrizia, 2014. "Are Italian consumer confidence adjustments asymmetric? A macroeconomic and psychological motives approach," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 48-63.
    7. Vicente Esteve, 2004. "Política fiscal y productividad del trabajo en la economía española: un análisis de series temporales," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, June.
    8. Bosupeng, Mpho, 2017. "On the Effects of the BRICS on World Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 81757, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
    9. Ogali, Oscar I.O. & Okoro, Emeka E. & Olafuyi, Saburi G., 2023. "Assessing consensus on nexus between natural gas consumption and economic growth," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    10. Baak, SaangJoon, 2017. "Is the yen misaligned more during the Abenomics period?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 26-34.
    11. Haug, Alfred A., 1996. "Tests for cointegration a Monte Carlo comparison," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 89-115.
    12. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? – Cointegrated VAR versus Single Equation Techniques," Ruhr Economic Papers 0171, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    13. Ben-Salha, Ousama & Jaidi, Zied, 2014. "Some new evidence on the determinants of money demand in developing countries – A case study of Tunisia," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 30-45.
    14. Marco Morales, 2014. "Cointegration testing under structural change: reducing size distortions and improving power of residual based tests," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 23(2), pages 265-282, June.
    15. Matteo Mogliani, 2010. "Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple deterministic structural breaks: A Monte Carlo study," Working Papers halshs-00564897, HAL.
    16. van Amano, Robert A & Norden, Simon, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 683-694, November.
    17. Choi, In & Kurozumi, Eiji, 2012. "Model selection criteria for the leads-and-lags cointegrating regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 224-238.
    18. Guan, Jialin & Kirikkaleli, Dervis & Bibi, Ayesha & Zhang, Weike, 2020. "Natural resources rents nexus with financial development in the presence of globalization: Is the “resource curse” exist or myth?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    19. Yemane Wolde-Rufael, 2016. "Defence Spending and Income Inequality in Taiwan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(6), pages 871-884, November.
    20. Chai-Thing Tan & Azali Mohamed & Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Lee Chin, 2020. "The Impacts of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Economic Growth in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 9(1), pages 114-130, June.
    21. Neto, David, 2020. "Tracking fiscal discipline. Looking for a PIIGS on the wing," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 147-154.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumer confidence indicator; Short-term interest rate; Perceived rate of inflation; Cointegration.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28395. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.