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Hot and Cold IPO Markets: Identification Using a Regime Switching Model

Author

Listed:
  • Tim Brailsford

    (Australian National University, Australia)

  • Richard Heaney

    (Australian National University, Australia)

  • John Powell

    (University of Otago, New Zealand)

  • Jing Shi

    (Australian National University, Australia)

Abstract

The market for unseasoned equity has the unusual and distinguishing feature of periods of concentrated activity in terms of both volume and underpricing. This paper formally documents the existence of such periods using a regime-switching model that dates transitions between hot and cold states. A number of hot periods are identified over a 20-year period using a variety of IPO activity measures that capture different aspects of new issue volume, proceeds and underpricing. The study further documents a leading relationship between underpricing and IPO volume of up to six months. This relationship supports the contention that the decision to issue is a function of current underpricing. Various reasons are hypothesised for this result and the paper finds supportive evidence through a VAR analysis that reveals the influence of stock market and business conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Tim Brailsford & Richard Heaney & John Powell & Jing Shi, 2000. "Hot and Cold IPO Markets: Identification Using a Regime Switching Model," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 4(1-2), pages 35-68, March-Jun.
    • Handle: RePEc:mfj:journl:v:4:y:2000:i:1-2:p:35-68
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Xinyu Wang & Cathy Ning, 2022. "A new Markov regime‐switching count time series approach for forecasting initial public offering volumes and detecting issue cycles," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 118-133, January.
    2. Muhammad Zubair Mumtaz & Zachary Alexander Smith, 2018. "IPOs in the U.S. from 2005 to 2015: Using the Spline Regression Technique to Estimate Aggregate Issuance and Performance," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(2), pages 165-199, April.
    3. Domenico Delli Gatti & Edoardo Gaffeo & Mauro Gallegati, 2008. "A look at the relationship between industrial dynamics and aggregate fluctuations," Department of Economics Working Papers 0803, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    4. Oehler, Andreas & Rummer, Marco & Smith, Peter N., 2004. "IPO Pricing and the Relative Importance of Investor Sentiment: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 26, University of Bamberg, Chair of Finance.
    5. Michael D. McKenzie, 2007. "International Evidence on the Determinants of the Decision to List," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 32(1), pages 1-28, June.
    6. Guo, Haifeng & Brooks, Robert & Shami, Roland, 2010. "Detecting hot and cold cycles using a Markov regime switching model--Evidence from the Chinese A-share IPO market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 196-210, April.
    7. Dimitrios Gounopoulos, 2011. "Associations Between Management Forecast Accuracy and Pricing of IPOs in Athens Stock Exchange," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 15(3-4), pages 235-272, September.
    8. Guo, Haifeng & Wang, Ying & Wang, Bo & Ge, Yuanjing, 2022. "Does prospectus AE affect IPO underpricing? A content analysis of the Chinese stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1-12.
    9. Zhiqiang HU & Yizhu WANG, 2013. "The IPO Cycles in China's A-share IPO Market: Detection Based on a Three Regimes Markov Switching Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 115-131, October.
    10. George J. Papaioannou & Nickolaos G. Travlos, 2000. "Special Issue on Initial Public Offerings," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 4(1-2), pages 1-4, March-Jun.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    hot issues; IPOs; regime-switching; stock market; unseasoned issues;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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