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Initial public offerings in hot and cold markets

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Abstract

Asymmetric information models characterize hot IPO markets as periods when better quality firms have an incentive to issue equity, and cold markets when the lemons premium associated with equity is too high to draw in many issuers. Recent empirical evidence, however, suggests that firms that issue in hot markets are a major source of stock price underperformance of equity issuers. We investigate these opposing views with data on IPO firms that issued in 1983, a hot market, and 1988, a cold market. We find that the two sets of firms have similar operating performance, but stock returns are worse for firms that went public in the hot market. Our results are largely consistent with investor overoptimism in hot markets, but not with the asymmetric information models.

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  • Jean Helwege & J. Nellie Liang, 1996. "Initial public offerings in hot and cold markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:96-34
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    1. George W. Fenn & J. Nellie Liang & Stephen D. Prowse, 1995. "The economics of the private equity market," Staff Studies 168, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Jain, Bharat A & Kini, Omesh, 1994. "The Post-Issue Operating Performance of IPO Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1699-1726, December.
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    6. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:2:p:393-420 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1997. "The Operating Performance of Firms Conducting Seasoned Equity Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1823-1850, December.
    8. Bayless, Mark & Chaplinsky, Susan, 1996. "Is There a Window of Opportunity for Seasoned Equity Issuance?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 253-278, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stolpe, Michael, 2004. "Non-market interaction in primary equity markets: evidence from France and Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1211, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Dario Salerno, 2021. "The Impact of Initial Public Offerings on Firms’ Performance: Disentangling Treatment from Self-Selection Effects," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(4), pages 1-1.
    3. Salim Chahine & Jean-Pierre Mathieu, 2003. "Valorisation stratégique par contextes de valeur : le cas des introductions sur le nouveau marché," Post-Print hal-00765190, HAL.
    4. Rotheli, Tobias F., 2005. "The illusion of over-optimism in survey data: the case of manufacturers' selling prices," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 151-159, March.
    5. Alexander Ljungqvist & Vikram Nanda & Rajdeep Singh, 2006. "Hot Markets, Investor Sentiment, and IPO Pricing," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 1667-1702, July.
    6. Richard J. Rosen, 2006. "Merger Momentum and Investor Sentiment: The Stock Market Reaction to Merger Announcements," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(2), pages 987-1017, March.
    7. Salim Chahine & Jean-Pierre Mathieu, 2003. "Valorisation stratégique par contextes de valeur:le cas des introductions sur le Nouveau marché," Revue Finance Contrôle Stratégie, revues.org, vol. 6(2), pages 91-114, June.
    8. Michelle Lowry & G. William Schwert, 2002. "IPO Market Cycles: Bubbles or Sequential Learning?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1171-1200, June.
    9. Hoffmann-Burchardi, Ulrike, 2001. "Clustering of initial public offerings, information revelation and underpricing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 353-383, February.
    10. Tim Brailsford & Richard Heaney & John Powell & Jing Shi, 2000. "Hot and Cold IPO Markets: Identification Using a Regime Switching Model," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 4(1-2), pages 35-68, March-Jun.
    11. Brailsford, Tim & Heaney, Richard & Shi, Jing, 2004. "Modelling the behaviour of the new issue market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 119-132.

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    Keywords

    Stock - Prices;

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