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The Risk-Asymmetry Index as a new Measure of Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Elyas Elyasiani

    (Temple University, USA)

  • Luca Gambarelli

    (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Italy)

  • Silvia Muzzioli

    (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Italy)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to propose a simple and unique measure of risk that subsumes the conflicting information contained in volatility and skewness indices and overcomes the limitations of these indices in accurately measuring future fear or greed in the market. To this end, the concept of upside and downside corridor implied volatility, which accounts for the asymmetry in the risk-neutral distribution, is exploited. The risk-asymmetry index is intended to capture the investors’ pricing asymmetry towards upside gains and downside losses. The results show that the proposed risk-asymmetry index can play a crucial role in predicting future returns, at various forecast horizons, since it subsumes the information embedded in both the volatility and skewness indices. Furthermore, the risk-asymmetry index is the only index that, at very high values, possesses the ability to clearly highlight a risky situation for the aggregate stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • Elyas Elyasiani & Luca Gambarelli & Silvia Muzzioli, 2018. "The Risk-Asymmetry Index as a new Measure of Risk," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 22(3-4), pages 173-210, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:mfj:journl:v:22:y:2018:i:3-4:p:173-210
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Luca Gambarelli & Silvia Muzzioli, 2019. "Risk-asymmetry indices in Europe," Department of Economics 0157, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
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    3. Giovanni Campisi & Silvia Muzzioli, 2021. "Designing volatility indices for Austria, Finland and Spain," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 35(3), pages 369-455, September.
    4. Panayiotis Theodossiou & Dimitris Tsouknidis & Christos Savva, 2020. "Freight rates in downside and upside markets: pricing of own and spillover risks from other shipping segments," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(3), pages 1097-1119, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    risk-asymmetry; corridor implied volatility; risk-neutral moments; risk measures; return predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics

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