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Modeling Volatility in Foreign Currency Option Pricing

Author

Listed:
  • Ariful Hoque

    (Curtin University of Technology, Australia)

  • Felix Chan

    (Curtin University of Technology, Australia)

  • Meher Manzur

    (Curtin University of Technology, Australia)

Abstract

This paper presents a general optimization framework to forecast put and call option prices by exploiting the volatility of the options prices. The approach is flexible in that different objective functions for predicting the underlying volatility can be modified and adapted in the proposed framework. The framework is implemented empirically for four major currencies, including Euro. The forecast performance of this framework is compared with those of the Multiplicative Error Model (MEM) of implied volatility and the GARCH(1,1). The results indicate that the proposed framework is capable of producing reasonable accurate forecasts for put and call prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Ariful Hoque & Felix Chan & Meher Manzur, 2009. "Modeling Volatility in Foreign Currency Option Pricing," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 13(3-4), pages 189-208, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:mfj:journl:v:13:y:2009:i:3-4:p:189-208
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Canina, Linda & Figlewski, Stephen, 1993. "The Informational Content of Implied Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 659-681.
    6. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
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    8. Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998. "The relation between implied and realized volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November.
    9. Ederington, Louis H. & Lee, Jae Ha, 1996. "The Creation and Resolution of Market Uncertainty: The Impact of Information Releases on Implied Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(4), pages 513-539, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sabiruzzaman, Md. & Monimul Huq, Md. & Beg, Rabiul Alam & Anwar, Sajid, 2010. "Modeling and forecasting trading volume index: GARCH versus TGARCH approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 141-145, May.
    2. Ariful Hoque, 2011. "Transaction Cost Discovery By Decomposition Of The Error Term: A Bootstrapping Approach," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 5(1), pages 113-121.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign currency options; implied volatility; optimal volatility; multiplicative error model; GARCH model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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