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Which implied volatility provides the best measure of future volatility?

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  • Guan Wang
  • Pierre Yourougou
  • Yue Wang

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  • Guan Wang & Pierre Yourougou & Yue Wang, 2012. "Which implied volatility provides the best measure of future volatility?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(1), pages 93-105, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:36:y:2012:i:1:p:93-105
    DOI: 10.1007/s12197-009-9114-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Torben G. Andersen & Luca Benzoni, 2008. "Realized volatility," Working Paper Series WP-08-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    2. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Bakshi, Gurdip & Cao, Charles & Chen, Zhiwu, 2000. "Do Call Prices and the Underlying Stock Always Move in the Same Direction?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(3), pages 549-584.
    4. Hsieh, David A, 1991. "Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1839-1877, December.
    5. George J. Jiang & Yisong S. Tian, 2005. "The Model-Free Implied Volatility and Its Information Content," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1305-1342.
    6. Bakshi, Gurdip & Cao, Charles & Chen, Zhiwu, 1997. "Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2003-2049, December.
    7. Bent Jesper Christensen & Charlotte Strunk Hansen, 2002. "New evidence on the implied-realized volatility relation," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 187-205, June.
    8. Whaley, Robert E., 1982. "Valuation of American call options on dividend-paying stocks : Empirical tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 29-58, March.
    9. Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998. "The relation between implied and realized volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November.
    10. Harvey, Campbell R & Whaley, Robert E, 1991. "S&P 100 Index Option Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1251-1261, September.
    11. Latane, Henry A & Rendleman, Richard J, Jr, 1976. "Standard Deviations of Stock Price Ratios Implied in Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 369-381, May.
    12. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1993. "Forecasting Stock-Return Variance: Toward an Understanding of Stochastic Implied Volatilities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 293-326.
    13. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    14. Beckers, Stan, 1981. "Standard deviations implied in option prices as predictors of future stock price variability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 363-381, September.
    15. Owain Ap Gwilym & Mike Buckle, 1999. "Volatility forecasting in the framework of the option expiry cycle," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 73-94.
    16. Chiras, Donald P. & Manaster, Steven, 1978. "The information content of option prices and a test of market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 213-234.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tanuj Nandan & Puja Agrawal, 2016. "Pricing Efficiency in CNX Nifty Index Options Using the Black–Scholes Model: A Comparative Study of Alternate Volatility Measures," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 10(2), pages 281-304, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Option; Volatility Smile; Implied Volatility; Black-Scholes Model; Hypothesis; Informational Content; C02; C12; G12; G14;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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