IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/uow/depec1/wp99-17.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Did Option Traders Predict the Korean Financial Crisis of 1997?

Author

Listed:
  • Bhabra, G.S.
  • Gonzalez, M.L.
  • Sup, K.M.
  • Powell, J.G.

Abstract

This paper examines KOSPI200 options prices in order to investigate whether implied volatility implicit in options prices foreshadowed the 1997 financial crisis in Korea. A set of call and put implied volatilities are examined for evidence of expectations prior to October 23, 1997 of an impending financial crisis. It is shown that implied volatilities from out-of-the-money calls were relatively higher than those from otherwise identical puts during the period preceding October 23, 1997. Thereafter, however, put implied volatilities became extremely high relative to call implied volatilities. These results indicate no strong fears about the financial crisis during the three months immediately preceding the financial crisis, so KOSPI200 options prices indicate that options traders failed to detect the financial crisis prior to October 23, 1997.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhabra, G.S. & Gonzalez, M.L. & Sup, K.M. & Powell, J.G., 1999. "Did Option Traders Predict the Korean Financial Crisis of 1997?," Economics Working Papers wp99-17, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  • Handle: RePEc:uow:depec1:wp99-17
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.uow.edu.au/content/groups/public/@web/@commerce/@econ/documents/doc/uow012264.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeff Fleming & Barbara Ostdiek & Robert E. Whaley, 1995. "Predicting stock market volatility: A new measure," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 265-302, May.
    2. Bates, David S, 1991. "The Crash of '87: Was It Expected? The Evidence from Options Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 1009-1044, July.
    3. Christie, Andrew A., 1982. "The stochastic behavior of common stock variances : Value, leverage and interest rate effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 407-432, December.
    4. Canina, Linda & Figlewski, Stephen, 1993. "The Informational Content of Implied Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 659-681.
    5. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    6. Day, Theodore E. & Lewis, Craig M., 1988. "The behavior of the volatility implicit in the prices of stock index options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 103-122, October.
    7. Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998. "The relation between implied and realized volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November.
    8. Chiras, Donald P. & Manaster, Steven, 1978. "The information content of option prices and a test of market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 213-234.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
    2. David S. Bates, 1995. "Testing Option Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 5129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," Papers 95.400, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
    4. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Wang, Yubo & Yared, Francis, 2001. "Do option markets correctly price the probabilities of movement of the underlying asset?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 67-110, May.
    5. Christiansen, Charlotte & Strunk Hansen, Charlotte, 2000. "Implied Volatility of Interest Rate Options: An Empirical Investigation of the Market Model," Finance Working Papers 00-1, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    6. Chuang, Wen-I & Huang, Teng-Ching & Lin, Bing-Huei, 2013. "Predicting volatility using the Markov-switching multifractal model: Evidence from S&P 100 index and equity options," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 168-187.
    7. Panayiotis Andreou & Chris Charalambous & Spiros Martzoukos, 2006. "Robust Artificial Neural Networks for Pricing of European Options," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 329-351, May.
    8. Ding, Ashley, 2021. "A state-preference volatility index for the natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    9. Szakmary, Andrew & Ors, Evren & Kyoung Kim, Jin & Davidson, Wallace III, 2003. "The predictive power of implied volatility: Evidence from 35 futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2151-2175, November.
    10. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    11. Siriopoulos, Costas & Fassas, Athanasios, 2012. "An investor sentiment barometer — Greek Implied Volatility Index (GRIV)," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 77-93.
    12. Weiwei ZHANG & Tiezhu SUN & Yechi MA & Zilong WANG, 2021. "New Evidence on the Information Content of Implied Volatility of S&P 500: Model-Free versus Model-Based," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 109-121, December.
    13. Tsiaras, Leonidas, 2009. "The Forecast Performance of Competing Implied Volatility Measures: The Case of Individual Stocks," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2009-02, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    14. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "Forecasting the KOSPI200 spot volatility using various volatility measures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 514(C), pages 156-166.
    15. Busch, Thomas & Christensen, Bent Jesper & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard, 2011. "The role of implied volatility in forecasting future realized volatility and jumps in foreign exchange, stock, and bond markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 48-57, January.
    16. Zhangxin (Frank) Liu & Michael J. O'Neill & Tom Smith, 2017. "State-preference pricing and volatility indices," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(3), pages 815-836, September.
    17. Wilkens, Sascha & Roder, Klaus, 2006. "The informational content of option-implied distributions: Evidence from the Eurex index and interest rate futures options market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 50-74, September.
    18. Megaritis, Anastasios & Vlastakis, Nikolaos & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2021. "Stock market volatility and jumps in times of uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    19. Kim, Minho & Kim, Minchoul, 2003. "Implied volatility dynamics in the foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 511-528, August.
    20. Ariful Hoque & Felix Chan & Meher Manzur, 2009. "Modeling Volatility in Foreign Currency Option Pricing," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 13(3-4), pages 189-208, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Korean financial crisis; options traders;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uow:depec1:wp99-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Siminski (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deuowau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.