IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mes/postke/v27y2004i1p19-35.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Deviations from uncovered interest rate parity: a Post Keynesian explanation

Author

Listed:
  • JOHN T. HARVEY

Abstract

Finding satisfactory explanations of deviations from uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) has proved to be a frustrating experience for Neoclassical economists. Studies have focused on the role of risk, but thus far no one has been able to put forward a source thereof that can account for the specific pattern of deviations from UIRP. This paper offers an alternative perspective that finally resolves the mystery. Drawing on the work of Marc Lavoie and John Smithin and extending it with some basic Post Keynesian propositions regarding endogenous money, uncertainty, and nonergodicity, it is shown that one can devise a comprehensive explanation of UIRP--an explanation that shows that much more than risk is responsible for deviations. In particular, it is argued that Keynes's "confidence" is a vitally important and overlooked factor. This contention is supported by a regression analysis of the U.S.-German and U.S.- Japanese asset markets.

Suggested Citation

  • John T. Harvey, 2004. "Deviations from uncovered interest rate parity: a Post Keynesian explanation," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 19-35.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:postke:v:27:y:2004:i:1:p:19-35
    DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2004.11051427
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/01603477.2004.11051427
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/01603477.2004.11051427?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marc Lavoie, 2000. "A Post Keynesian View of Interest Parity Theorems," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 163-179, September.
    2. John Smithin, 1994. "Controversies In Monetary Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 412.
    3. John T. Harvey & Stephen F. Quinn, 1997. "Expectations and Rational Expectations in the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 615-622, June.
    4. John T. Harvey, 1999. "The Nature of Expectations in the Foreign Exchange Market: A Test of Competing Theories," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 21(2), pages 181-200, January.
    5. John T. Harvey, 1998. "The Nature of Expectations in the Foreign Exchange Market: A Test of Competing Theories," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 181-200, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Eduardo Castillo-Maldonado & Fidel Pérez-Macal, 2013. "Assessment of Models to Forecast Exchange Rates: The Quetzal-U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 71-99, May.
    2. John Harvey, 2009. "Currency Market Participants' Mental Model and the Collapse of the Dollar: 2001-2008," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 931-949.
    3. Muhammad Omer & Jakob de Haan & Bert Scholtens, 2019. "Does Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Hold After All?," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 24(2), pages 49-72, July-Dec.
    4. John Harvey, 2007. "Teaching Post Keynesian exchange rate theory," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 147-168.
    5. John Harvey, 2005. "Modeling Interest Rate Parity: A System Dynamics Approach," Working Papers 200502, Texas Christian University, Department of Economics.
    6. Muhammad Omer & Jakob de Haan & Bert Scholtens, 2014. "Testing uncovered interest rate parity using LIBOR," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(30), pages 3708-3723, October.
    7. Neil Hart, 2011. "Mainstream Macroeconomics: A ‘Keynesian’ Revival?," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 22(1), pages 17-40, May.
    8. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2019. "iCurrency?," Papers 1911.01272, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2019.
    9. Erdemlioglu, Deniz M, 2007. "A new Test of Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 10787, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kam, Eric & Smithin, John, 2008. "‘Unequal Partners’: The Role of International Financial Flows and the Exchange Rate Regime," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 125-137.
    2. Annina Kaltenbrunner, 2018. "Financialised internationalisation and structural hierarchies: a mixed-method study of exchange rate determination in emerging economies," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 42(5), pages 1315-1341.
    3. John Harvey, 2009. "Currency Market Participants' Mental Model and the Collapse of the Dollar: 2001-2008," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 931-949.
    4. Bhatti, Razzaque H., 2014. "The existence of uncovered interest parity in the CIS countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 227-241.
    5. Imad A. Moosa, 2015. "The random walk versus unbiased efficiency: can we separate the wheat from the chaff?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 251-279, October.
    6. Eckhard Hein, 2006. "Money, interest and capital accumulationin Karl Marx's economics: a monetary interpretation and some similaritiesto post-Keynesian approaches," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 113-140.
    7. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2015. "Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time-varying heterogeneity approach using survey data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3673-3695, July.
    8. Imad Moosa, 2017. "Covered interest parity: The untestable hypothesis," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 470-486, October.
    9. Giuseppe Fontana, 2006. "The 'New Consensus' View of Monetary Policy: A New Wicksellian Connection?," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 3(2), pages 263-278.
    10. Enrico Sergio Levrero, 2021. "Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest and the Stance of Monetary Policies: A Critical Assessment," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 5-27, February.
    11. Claude Gnos & Louis-Philippe Rochon, 2007. "The New Consensus and Post-Keynesian Interest Rate Policy," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 369-386.
    12. John Smithin, 2016. "Endogenous Money, Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates and the Exchange Rate Regime: A Comment on Palley, Tymoigne and Wray," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 64-78, January.
    13. Levrero, Enrico Sergio & Deleidi, Matteo, 2019. "The causal relationship between short- and long-term interest rates: an empirical assessment of the United States," MPRA Paper 93608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Angel Asensio, 2009. "Between the cup and the lip," CEPN Working Papers halshs-00496911, HAL.
    15. Eckhard Hein, 2019. "Karl Marx: an early post-Keynesian? A comparison of Marx's economics with the contributions by Sraffa, Keynes, Kalecki and Minsky," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 16(2), pages 238-259, September.
    16. Giuseppe Mastromatteo & Luigi Ventura, 2007. "The origin of money: A survey of the contemporary literature," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 54(2), pages 195-224, June.
    17. Serrano, Franklin & Summa , Ricardo, 2015. "Distribution and Cost-Push inflation in Brazil under inflation targeting, 1999-2014," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP14, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione "Piero Sraffa".
    18. Ricardo Summa & Franklin Serrano, 2018. "Distribution and Conflict Inflation in Brazil under Inflation Targeting, 1999–2014," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 50(2), pages 349-369, June.
    19. Paraskevopoulos, Christos C. & Paschakis, John & Smithin, John, 1996. "Is monetary sovereignty an option for the small open economy?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 5-18.
    20. John Harvey, 2001. "Psychological and Institutional Forces and the Determination of Exchange Rates," Working Papers 200101, Texas Christian University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mes:postke:v:27:y:2004:i:1:p:19-35. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/MPKE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.