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Currency Market Participants' Mental Model and the Collapse of the Dollar: 2001-2008

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  • John Harvey

Abstract

It is well accepted among Institutionalist and Post Keynesian scholars that portfolio investment markets are driven by agents' expectations rather than "the fundamentals." This explains, it is argued, why asset and currency prices are so much more volatile than and often clearly out of line with what we would otherwise consider to be their underlying determinants. What is rarely addressed, however, is how those expectations are formed. This paper fills the void by proposing a specific view of agents' expectations based on the mental model they employ to understand currency movements. The paper derives this schematic by examining market participants' psychological propensities and the world view of the subculture of which they are members. It will be shown that the model is consistent with the salient features of the foreign exchange market and it is employed to explain the dollar's fall from 2001 through 2008.

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  • John Harvey, 2009. "Currency Market Participants' Mental Model and the Collapse of the Dollar: 2001-2008," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 931-949.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:jeciss:v:43:y:2009:i:4:p:931-949
    DOI: 10.2753/JEI0021-3624430406
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    1. John T. Harvey, 1998. "Heuristic Judgment Theory," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 47-64, March.
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    8. Imad Moosa, 2007. "Neoclassical versus Post Keynesian models of exchange rate determination: a comparison based on nonnested model selection tests and predictive accuracy," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 169-185.
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    Cited by:

    1. Grabowski, Wojciech & Welfe, Aleksander, 2020. "The Tobit cointegrated vector autoregressive model: An application to the currency market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 88-100.

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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