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Shock and Volatility Transmission in the Futures and Spot Markets: Evidence from Turkish Markets

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  • Ekin Tokat
  • Hakkı Arda Tokat

Abstract

This paper examines the volatility transmission mechanism between the futures and corresponding underlying asset spot markets, focusing on Turkish currency and stock index futures traded on the lately established Turkish Derivatives Exchange (TURKDEX). Employing multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity modeling, which allows for potential spillovers and asymmetries in the variance-covariance structure for the market returns, the paper investigates the volatility interactions among each of the three futures-spot market systems. For all market systems under study, the volatility spillovers are found to be important and bidirectional. For the stock index market system, in line with the previous literature, volatility shows asymmetric behavior and strong asymmetric shock transmission. The main implication is that investors need to account for volatility spillovers and asymmetries among the futures and the spot markets to correctly build hedging strategies.

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  • Ekin Tokat & Hakkı Arda Tokat, 2010. "Shock and Volatility Transmission in the Futures and Spot Markets: Evidence from Turkish Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 92-104, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:46:y:2010:i:4:p:92-104
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Kim, Jun Sik & Ryu, Doojin, 2014. "Intraday price dynamics in spot and derivatives markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 247-253.
    3. Shailesh Rastogi & Chaitaly Athaley, 2019. "Volatility Integration in Spot, Futures and Options Markets: A Regulatory Perspective," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, June.
    4. Atilgan, Yigit & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Simsek, Koray D., 2016. "Derivative markets in emerging economies: A survey," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 88-102.
    5. Chi Keung Marco Lau & Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin, 2013. "Hedging with Chinese Aluminum Futures: International Evidence with Return and Volatility Spillover Indices Under Structural Breaks," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(S1), pages 37-48, January.

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