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The Impact of Imperfect Credibility in a Transition to Price Stability

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  • Nicolae, Anamaria
  • Nolan, Charles

Abstract

In this paper we study the impact of a temporary lack of credibility in a transition to price stability. We quantify the effects of a period of disinflation on temporary output losses, and the impact of the lack of credibility on the optimal speed of disinflation. We demonstrate that the "disinflationary booms" found by Ball (1994) and Ireland (1997) may or may not disappear in an environment with imperfect credibility, depending on the speed of learning relative to the speed of disinflation. Finally, we enquire whether the speed of the Volcker disinflation was excessive or not.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolae, Anamaria & Nolan, Charles, 2006. "The Impact of Imperfect Credibility in a Transition to Price Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(1), pages 47-66, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:38:y:2006:i:1:p:47-66
    DOI: 10.1353/mcb.2006.0022
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    7. Danziger, Leif, 1988. "Costs of Price Adjustment and the Welfare Economics of Inflation and Disinflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 633-646, September.
    8. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Bonomo & Carlos Carvalho, 2010. "Imperfectly Credible Disinflation under Endogenous Time‐Dependent Pricing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(5), pages 799-831, August.
    2. Lynne Evans & Anamaria Nicolae, 2007. "Return The Output Effect of Stopping Inflation when Velocity is Time Varying," Working Papers 2007_06, Durham University Business School.
    3. Ascari, Guido & Ropele, Tiziano, 2012. "Disinflation in a DSGE perspective: Sacrifice ratio or welfare gain ratio?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 169-182.
    4. Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2012. "Sacrifice Ratio in a Medium‐Scale New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(2‐3), pages 457-467, March.
    5. Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar & Carvalho, Carlos Viana de, 2003. "Endogenous time-dependent rules and the costs of disinflation with imperfect credibility," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 505, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    6. Mojon, Benoît, 2008. "When did unsystematic monetary policy have an effect on inflation?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 487-497, April.
    7. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2012_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Alina Barnett & Martin Ellison, 2013. "Learning by Disinflating," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 731-746, June.
    9. Hatcher, Michael, 2022. "Solving linear rational expectations models in the presence of structural change: Some extensions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    10. Lynne EVANS & Anamaria NICOLAE, 2008. "The Output Effect Of Stopping Inflation When Velocity Is Time Varying," Journal of Information Systems & Operations Management, Romanian-American University, vol. 2(1), pages 231-253, July.
    11. Lendvai, Julia, 2006. "Inflation dynamics and regime shifts," Working Paper Series 684, European Central Bank.
    12. Tatiana Damjanovic & Charles Nolan, 2010. "Relative Price Distortions and Inflation Persistence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(547), pages 1080-1099, September.
    13. André Lunardelli & Marcio Issao Nakane, 2019. "The New Keynesian Model and Sacrifice Ratios: Some Measurement Issues," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2019_18, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    14. Roman Horváth & Jakub Matějů, 2011. "How Are Inflation Targets Set?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 265-300, June.
    15. Tatiana Damjanovic & Charles Nolan, 2006. "Some Welfare Implications Of Optimal Stabilisation Policy In An Economy With Capital And Sticky Prices," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 53(1), pages 47-71, February.
    16. Lynne Evans & Anamaria Nicolae, 2010. "The Output Effect of a Transition to Price Stability When Velocity Is Time Varying," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(5), pages 859-878, August.
    17. Lynne Evans & Anamaria Nicolae, 2008. "The Output Effect Of Stopping Inflation When Velocity Is Time Varying," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 3(2), pages 60-77, June.
    18. Alina Barnett & Martin Ellison, 2013. "Learning by Disinflating," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 731-746, June.
    19. James B. Bullard, 2022. "Reflections on the Disinflationary Methods of Poincaré and Thatcher," Speech 94556, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    20. Kozamernik, Damjan & Žumer, Tina, 2010. "Monetary policy and disinflation on the way to the euro in Slovenia," SEER Journal for Labour and Social Affairs in Eastern Europe, Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG, vol. 13(2), pages 227-255.
    21. Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2008. "Sacrifice Ratio or Welfare Gain Ratio? Disinflation in a DGSE monetary model," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0806, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    22. Lynne Evans & Anamaria Nicolae, 2010. "Imperfectly-Credible Disinflation of Small Inflations," Working Papers 2010_01, Durham University Business School.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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