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Imperfectly-Credible Disinflation of Small Inflations

Author

Listed:
  • Lynne Evans

    (Newcastle University Business School)

  • Anamaria Nicolae

    (Durham Business School)

Abstract

In this paper we study and quantify the e¤ects of a disinflationary policy on output and welfare. Our focus is the policy question of the optimal response to low inflation.The analysis takes place in the context of a DSGE model with sticky prices, time varying velocity and imperfect credibility. The nonlinear solution method reveals that early output losses may be more pronounced and more prolonged than previously suggested in the literature, and there may be insufficient compensation from a subsequent higher steady state to justify taking any disinflationary policy action in some cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Lynne Evans & Anamaria Nicolae, 2010. "Imperfectly-Credible Disinflation of Small Inflations," Department of Economics Working Papers 2010_01, Durham University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:dur:durham:2010_01
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    File URL: http://dro.dur.ac.uk/10357
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marco Bonomo & Carlos Carvalho, 2010. "Imperfectly Credible Disinflation under Endogenous Time‐Dependent Pricing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(5), pages 799-831, August.
    2. Lynne Evans & Anamaria Nicolae, 2010. "The Output Effect of a Transition to Price Stability When Velocity Is Time Varying," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(5), pages 859-878, August.
    3. Nicolae, Anamaria & Nolan, Charles, 2006. "The Impact of Imperfect Credibility in a Transition to Price Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(1), pages 47-66, February.
    4. Dibooglu, Sel & Kenc, Turalay, 2009. "Welfare cost of inflation in a stochastic balanced growth model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 650-658, May.
    5. Robert King & Alexander L. Wolman, 1999. "What Should the Monetary Authority Do When Prices Are Sticky?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 349-404, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Almeida, Heitor & Bonomo, Marco, 2002. "Optimal state-dependent rules, credibility, and inflation inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1317-1336, October.
    7. Serletis, Apostolos & Yavari, Kazem, 2004. "The welfare cost of inflation in Canada and the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 199-204, August.
    8. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    price stability; velocity; disinlfation; output boom; optimal speed of disinlfation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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