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Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race

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  • Laura Alfaro
  • Fabio Kanczuk

Abstract

The main arguments in favor and against nominal and indexed debt are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium model with tax distortion, government outlays uncertainty, and contingent-debt service. Our framework also recognizes that contingent debt can be associated with incentive problems and lack of commitment. Thus, the benefits of unexpected inflation are tempered by higher interest rates. We obtain that costs from inflation more than offset the benefits from reducing tax distortions. We further discuss sustainability of nominal debt in developing (volatile) countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Alfaro & Fabio Kanczuk, 2007. "Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race," NBER Working Papers 13131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13131
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabio Kanczuk & Laura Alfaro, 2012. "Carry Trade and Exchange Rate Regimes," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2012_05, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    2. Westerhout, Ed, 2021. "Inflation-Linked Bonds, Nominal Bonds, and Countercyclical Monetary Policies," Other publications TiSEM ee384b1f-4e6f-4f30-821e-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Gomez-Gonzalez, Patricia, 2019. "Inflation-linked public debt in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 313-334.
    4. Pintér, Gábor, 2022. "The procyclicality of inflation-linked debt," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    5. Sunder-Plassmann, Laura, 2020. "Infation, default and sovereign debt: The role of denomination and ownership," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    6. Hill, Brian & Michalski, Tomasz, 2018. "Risk versus ambiguity and international security design," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 74-105.
    7. Westerhout, Ed & Beetsma, Roel, 2019. "A comparison of nominal and indexed debt under fiscal constraints," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 177-194.
    8. Westerhout, Ed, 2021. "Inflation-Linked Bonds, Nominal Bonds, and Countercyclical Monetary Policies," Discussion Paper 2021-001, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    9. Laura Alfaro & Fabio Kanczuk, 2019. "Debt Redemption and Reserve Accumulation," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(2), pages 261-287, June.
    10. Wenxin Du & Carolin E. Pflueger & Jesse Schreger, 2016. "Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 22592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Wenxin Du & Carolin E. Pflueger & Jesse Schreger, 2020. "Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 3097-3138, December.
    12. Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez, 2021. "Drivers of inflation-linked public debt: an empirical investigation," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 223-244, February.
    13. Paulo de Carvalho Lins & Marcio Issao Nakane, 2019. "Floating-rate bonds and monetary policy effectiveness: insights from a DSGE model," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2019_08, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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